There are lots of estimates for small panel OLED displays both LCD and OLED, with the focus on smartphone or feature phones, and while unit volumes and sales are certainly important, another metric we track is trends in new models, both the number of available models and the features.  Our most recent look was concerning the use of OLED displays in smartphones, where we were looking to see how estimates for OLED penetration, usually made on a unit or area basis, compared to OLED smartphone penetration from a model standpoint.
Given that the data collected for 2021 is for only the first half of this year, and that on average (last two years) 55.2% of available models are released in the 2nd half of the year, we can make some assumptions about how many new smartphone models will be released and available this year and what percentage of those will be OLED or LCD.  Based on the typical split between 1H and 2H, the model suggests that this will be a record year for new smartphone models, reaching a projected 426 smartphone models released or available this year, up 12.5% from last year, and slightly above the peak of the last 5 years (2017) (Fig. 1).  OLED share itself has been increasing in new models, with a projected 48.6% share of new & available models by the end of this year and a slightly higher share (over 50%) for the 1st half (Fig. 2).

​The same data gives us some understanding of the size of new & available models, which has changed substantially over the last few years, but rather than plot the share of each size of smartphone over the last 5 years, which would present a complex visual, we show in Fig. 3, the largest size category for each year and the share of the total that that size held.   Back in 2017 the 5.0” to 5.5” category was not only the largest, but also held over a 75% share of the total, however within a year that share dropped to under 30% as smartphone sizes began to increase rapidly and by 2019 the largest size category for smartphones was 6.2%.  While the average smartphone has continued to increase in size, the 6.4”to 6.5” category has remained the largest for smartphones both last year and this year and continues to increase as a percentage of the total from 35.7% last year to a projected 41.6% this year.  With the increasing number of foldables, all of which sport OLED displays, we expect the size categories at and above 7” to continue to expand and the OLED share of new and available smartphones to continue to increase.

Yesterday we spent some time describing the potential for Apple (AAPL) to transition its iPad line to OLED displays in 2022 and 2023, and we believe there is a faction at Apple and a number of its suppliers who are pushing to make that transition, particularly as a similar transition from LCD to OLED in the company’s iPhone line has been quite successful.  But that certainly does not rule out other display technologies and as we also noted yesterday the OLED coterie at Apple has a rival crew that is interested in staying with LCD displays but adding Mini-LED backlights to enhance the quality.  While the OLED group seems to be focused on the iPad, the Mini-LED group is focused on the MacBook, and it seems that Apple is putting some muscle behind the Mini-LED faction in the near-term.
Apple has been working on Mini-LED and Micro-LED technology for a few years (they purchased micro-LED developer LuxView (pvt) in 2014) and maintains ‘secret’ R&D/Pilot lines in Taiwan and California, where partners Ennostar (3714.TT), AU Optronics (AUOTY) and others work with Apple’s engineers to push forward the development of Mini-LED and Micro-LED devices.  That said, Apple’s foray into Mini-LED technology for the iPad Pro this year seems to have pushed the company to move further toward commercializing Mini-LED technology, with the possibility that the September/October release of this year’s MacBook Pro will include two Mini-LED based models.
Along with a new, or at least updated processor, the is year’s MacBook Pro is expected to be available with a 14” or 16” Mini-LED LCD display, and to prepare for that release Apple is said to be spending $200m to help its Mini-LED supply chain expand to meet  its needs.  In particular we believe that one of Apple’s suppliers, Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology (6278.TT) is building out 4 new SMT (Surface Mount) lines that will be producing Mini-LED boards for Apple, and while we cannot confirm that Apple is financing this expansion at TSMT’s Dongguan, China plant, it does seem that the lines, which are expected to be able to process 700,000 to 800,000 units/month, will be dedicated to Apple, at least in the near-term. 
Apple is also working toward increasing Mini-LED production at other suppliers in the Mini-LED production chain, some of which have been purchasing tools over the last year, or have had Apple purchase the tools for them.  Zhen Ding Technology (4958.TT) and Tripod (3044.TT) have both expanded PCB board capacity recently in order to meet expected demand from Apple, and we know of other intermediate producers or process tool vendors that have seen incremental purchases from Apple’s Mini-LED supply chain or from Apple itself over the last few quarters, as the Mini-LED iPad Pro registers sales.
However Apple’s financial commitment to Mini-LEDs does not color our opinion about the company’s concurrent move toward OLED for other devices, as both have places in the Apple device eco-system, particularly the timelines for the adoption of both technologies differ.  While OLED is more mature in terms of production process, there are only a few producers who are able to meet Apple’s quality and quantity needs, and while we expect other producers to continue to increase production and quality over the next few years, Apple has moved slowly and methodically into OLED displays.  Mini-LED technology is an outgrowth of more typical LED backlight technology, and while the Mini-LED supply chain infrastructure is still developing and process issues are being addressed, there is no ‘new’ technology or process steps that need to be developed before it can be implemented, which increases its attractiveness in the near-term.  This gives both technology camps reason to expect continued support both financially and from a product perspective going forward.  They might be dueling, but they are both really playing the same song.

OLED materials, particularly emitting materials, are very specialized materials.  The recipe’s used by each OLED producer as to the composition and amounts of their OLED stack materials are as secretive as the formula for Coca Cola™, and are constantly under development.  Companies like Universal Display (OLED), Idemitsu Kosan (5019.JP), DS Neolux (213420.KS), Solus (336370.KS), Hodogaya (4112.JP), Jilin (688378.CH), Sumitomo (4005.JP), and Merck (MRK) produce various stack materials that are sold to OLED producers to create their particular stack recipes.   
When it comes to emitters, the light emitting element of OLED displays, there are two basic categories that emitters fall into, the first being fluorescent emitters and the second being phosphorescent emitters.  Simply put, phosphorescent emitters produce, in theory, 3 times the light of fluorescent emitters, so OLED producers are always looking to use phosphorescents in combination with other stack materials.  Unfortunately, while red and green phosphorescent emitters exist and are commonly used in RGB OLED displays, blue phosphorescent materials have proven far more difficult to synthesize for a number of reasons, leaving only blue fluorescent emitters as that 3rd component of RGB OLED displays. 
This has ramifications as to a number of display metrics, however all three emitter materials are combinations of a ‘host’ and a ‘dopant’, which when combined form the emissive layer of an OLED.  With a wide variety of host materials and an every changing list of organo-metallic dopants, the combinations are almost endless, with new molecules being developed continuously.  As each new molecule or combination is developed, they are tested by OLED producers and if they provide enough of an advantage over existing emitter combinations, they are adopted. 
As Universal Display is the only producer of phosphorescent emitters due to its IP ownership, red and green host materials are able to be developed by other suppliers that will ‘help’ the red and green emitters to operate more efficiently., however in the case of blue, which is currently a fluorescent emitter, both the emitter and the host can be developed by suppliers, which makes for a more competitive market.
LG Display (LPL) currently the only volume producer of OLED TV displays, does not use the RGB combination process for its OLED TVs, but uses a yellow/green phosphorescent emitter from UDC and a blue fluorescent emitter, which when combined produce while light (WOLED), which is then converted to colors using a color filter.  As this two color combination is half fluorescent and half phosphorescent, and therefore seeing less of an efficiency improvement that the RGB combination receives (66%), LG Display is constantly pushing to refine its structures and materials to increase efficiency, leaving the competition open to all potential OLED (blue) emitter and host material suppliers.  This means each is constantly pushing its development teams to build a better blue emitter/host ‘mousetrap’ to garner LG Display’s fluorescent emitter material business.
Changing materials in the OLED stack is certainly something that the production folks at LG Display do not look forward to, as stack material changes can garner changes to layer thickness, types of conjunctive materials, and potentially changes as far forward as TFT structure or values. Any change that might need significant downtime to implement costs the company lost revenue and lower margins, so changes are not taken lightly, and in LG Display’s case, for that reason, LGD uses different materials at its fabs in South Korea than it does in its fab in China, with the Chinese fab using a newer blue host.
The blue host material being used at LGD’s OLED fabs in Paju, South Korea is produced primarily by Idemitsu Kosan, but LG Chem (051910.KS) began supplying blue host to its affiliate last year, having licensed the technology from Idemitsu.  However LG Chem purchased a number of patents relating to blue host from Dupont (DPT.FP) in 2019, and has developed a new blue host that is to compete with the blue host materials supplied to LGD’s China OLED fab, some of which is being produced by DuPont for others as an OEM.  If LG Chem is successful in its effort to become a ‘new blue host’ supplier to LGD’s China fab, they will have the opportunity to be a supplier when LGD converts its two fabs in South Korea to the newer, more advanced stack materials later this year and in 1H ’22, and with the limited number of blue fluorescent emitter and host suppliers, LG Display will gain the supplier diversity that it needs to avoid any potential limitations on supply from Japanese producers and an affiliated ally.

With COVID-19 vaccinations increasing and hospitalizations decreasing, some of the global workforce is actually going back to the office, and while that means putting on real pants, (not the sweats with the hole where the pocket used to be or the Rick & Morty PJ bottoms, but pants with creases), and maybe two or three days a week, not having the dog sit within 3 feet of you 24/7.  This also means less time for those “OMG this place is a mess” 2AM cleanings and closet reorganizations, so it might be time to allocate some financial resources toward someone who can take care of some of these mundane chores for you.   At between $50 and $80/hr. cleaning services are expensive, and you are not quite sure you are OK with strangers wondering around your house or apartment and poking through your stuff.
Well Samsung (005930.KS) has the solution, the Jet Bot AI+ that will be coming to a store near you to solve all of your cleaning and related problems.  This device is more than a floor and carpet sweeper, according to Samsung's promotional literature[1], “...the Jet Bot AI+ offers companionship and builds strong relationships, and can understand and genuinely care for its users.”  The Jet Bot AI+ does this in two ways, first, instead of using a digital screen (like others) it vividly expresses functions and situations with subtle lighting.  Before it begins cleaning, the lighting on the Jet Bot AI+ gradually increases, “creating the impression that the device is opening its eyes and looking from side to side,” and with 22 “delicately designed lighting animations” it can inform the user of its status (should the user want to know).
But that’s only scratching the surface (sorry)  of how the Jet Bot AI+ can relate to you, as it also is equipped with Bixby, Samsung’s answer to Amazon’s (AMZN) Alexa and Google’s (GOOG) Assistant, making it able to communicate in a way that, “exudes reliability…and creates a sense of companionship,” and if you are really lacking in companionship, Samsung adds that “the device’s witty responses to certain situations and questions make it seem much more human and alive,” allowing you to feel comfortable adding the Jet Bot AI+ to your Facebook (FB) ‘friends’ list. 
But what about the dog who had gotten so used to multiple walks, the smell of dirty towels in the bathroom, and those same very ‘used’ sweats?  Samsung did not forget your trusty companion and carefully considered how to alleviate the stress you feel about now having to return to the office and leave your pet alone by enabling the Jet Bot AI+ to monitor your pet while you are away.  Not only can the Jet Bot AI+ monitor your pet’s actions by pointing out where the pet is on a map of your space on your smartphone, but “if a pet exhibits abnormal behavior due to its owners absence, the robot will immediately notify the user and offer helpful information relevant to the situation.” The device can also record pets at home so the user will not miss out on “precious moments” that they might miss by being at work.
Of course, the Jet Bot AI+ offers all of the things you might want in a robotic vacuum, such as automatic charging, automatic dustbin emptying, smartphone scheduling, and the always necessary ability to examine your ‘cleaning history’ to save time when planning your next vacuuming schedule, but the bot does have an IR sensor, LIDAR, and, while it is not specified, a camera, along with the necessary HEPA filters and the more typical features available to most robotic floor cleaners (and a $1,299 price tag ).  But there is no way one can value the new relationship you and your Jet Bot AI+ will develop, and the same goes for your pets, who will likely find the device a welcome addition to collection of your old socks items they have secretly hidden around the house.  While we are certainly making fun of the Samsung advertising copy and its push to humanize a vacuum cleaner, the Jet Bot AI+ is another step forward in the use of recognition systems that will someday be trusted with driving us around safely.  Whether or not we need to be friends with such devices is another question.


[1] All quoted statements are from Samsung promotional literature