Smartphones & OLED
There are lots of estimates for small panel OLED displays both LCD and OLED, with the focus on smartphone or feature phones, and while unit volumes and sales are certainly important, another metric we track is trends in new models, both the number of available models and the features. Our most recent look was concerning the use of OLED displays in smartphones, where we were looking to see how estimates for OLED penetration, usually made on a unit or area basis, compared to OLED smartphone penetration from a model standpoint.
Given that the data collected for 2021 is for only the first half of this year, and that on average (last two years) 55.2% of available models are released in the 2nd half of the year, we can make some assumptions about how many new smartphone models will be released and available this year and what percentage of those will be OLED or LCD. Based on the typical split between 1H and 2H, the model suggests that this will be a record year for new smartphone models, reaching a projected 426 smartphone models released or available this year, up 12.5% from last year, and slightly above the peak of the last 5 years (2017) (Fig. 1). OLED share itself has been increasing in new models, with a projected 48.6% share of new & available models by the end of this year and a slightly higher share (over 50%) for the 1st half (Fig. 2).
Given that the data collected for 2021 is for only the first half of this year, and that on average (last two years) 55.2% of available models are released in the 2nd half of the year, we can make some assumptions about how many new smartphone models will be released and available this year and what percentage of those will be OLED or LCD. Based on the typical split between 1H and 2H, the model suggests that this will be a record year for new smartphone models, reaching a projected 426 smartphone models released or available this year, up 12.5% from last year, and slightly above the peak of the last 5 years (2017) (Fig. 1). OLED share itself has been increasing in new models, with a projected 48.6% share of new & available models by the end of this year and a slightly higher share (over 50%) for the 1st half (Fig. 2).
New & Available Smartphone Models by Year/Technology - Source: SCMR LLC, GSMArena
New & Available Smartphone Models - OLED Share - Source: SCMR LLC, GSMArena
The same data gives us some understanding of the size of new & available models, which has changed substantially over the last few years, but rather than plot the share of each size of smartphone over the last 5 years, which would present a complex visual, we show in Fig. 3, the largest size category for each year and the share of the total that that size held. Back in 2017 the 5.0” to 5.5” category was not only the largest, but also held over a 75% share of the total, however within a year that share dropped to under 30% as smartphone sizes began to increase rapidly and by 2019 the largest size category for smartphones was 6.2%. While the average smartphone has continued to increase in size, the 6.4”to 6.5” category has remained the largest for smartphones both last year and this year and continues to increase as a percentage of the total from 35.7% last year to a projected 41.6% this year. With the increasing number of foldables, all of which sport OLED displays, we expect the size categories at and above 7” to continue to expand and the OLED share of new and available smartphones to continue to increase.
New & Available Smartphones - Largest Size Category & Share - Source: SCMR LLC, GSMArena
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