Beat the Clock
While we recently noted that TCL/Chinastar (000100.CH) has made their plans to begin construction of a Gen 8.6 IT OLED fab official, it seems that competitor Visionox (002387.CH) is doing everything possible to pull-in its new Gen 8.6 OLED production timeline to compete with all Gen 8.6 OLED developers. The main building at the Visionox site was capped last month, allowing for cleanroom construction to begin, and as the fab is using Visionox’s proprietary VIP photolithographic process, it is thought that such tools have already bee ordered with Applied Materials (AMAT) thought to be the main lithography tool provider. We expect those tools, especially as they are customized for display processing rather than use on a semiconductor line, will take at least 6 months to build and three to six months to install, test, and optimize. Neither company has acknowledged contract or price, but we expect that 4 such tools would be ordered at a cost of between $10m and $15m each, at the least. Assuming we are correct about the lith tool production timeline, they could be ready as early as 3Q 2026, although we believe that is very optimistic. More likely late 2026 or early 2027.
Visionox has also ordered annealing equipment from AP Systems (054620.KS) within the last few days. As the contract runs through October of 2026 (30% down, 60% on delivery and 10% on FAT), much of the important equipment will be in by the end of 3Q next year, leaving nine months for testing and refinements. As this is a new display production process that has yet to be scaled, nine months seems reasonable, leading toa mid 2027 start for mass production. Visionox is up against both Samsung Display and BOE who began preparations for their Gen 8.6 fabs last year and use more standardized fine metal mask VTE deposition tools that are at least fairly close to those used for Gen 6 OLED (much larger), so we give Visionox extra time to refine their proprietary process, although they seem hell-bent on beating all start-up forecasts.
Visionox has also ordered annealing equipment from AP Systems (054620.KS) within the last few days. As the contract runs through October of 2026 (30% down, 60% on delivery and 10% on FAT), much of the important equipment will be in by the end of 3Q next year, leaving nine months for testing and refinements. As this is a new display production process that has yet to be scaled, nine months seems reasonable, leading toa mid 2027 start for mass production. Visionox is up against both Samsung Display and BOE who began preparations for their Gen 8.6 fabs last year and use more standardized fine metal mask VTE deposition tools that are at least fairly close to those used for Gen 6 OLED (much larger), so we give Visionox extra time to refine their proprietary process, although they seem hell-bent on beating all start-up forecasts.
Figure 1 - Visionox Gen 8.6 Fab Construction Site - December 2024 - Source: Visionox
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