Bragging Rights or Making Money
Samsung Display (pvt) is the leader in the foldable smartphone display market, while they were not the first to release a foldable display, the competitor that beat them is no longer in business. That said, the number of OLED display producers and phone brands that are producing displays or offering foldable smartphones has increased considerably since the initial releases back in 2019, at which point there were two brands Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Huawei (pvt). While Motorola and others offer a number of models Samsung and Hiawei are still the volume (units) leaders and continue to battle to maintain (Samsun) or gain (Huawei) share in this relatively new market.
In September of 2024 Huawei released the Mate XT Ultimate, a tri-fold smartphone, that pushed the competitive envelope further. Not to be outdone, it seems that Samsung has been discussing production plans with suppliers for its first tri-fold phone, which is expected to go into production in April. While all components have not been finalized yet, scheduling is being discussed in order to make sure the components, a number of which are new, will be available to assemblers when necessary. It is expected that Samsung will produce `~200,000 units this year, an exceptionally small number compared to the 5m expected for this year’s Z Flip and Z Fold, which together represent less than 3% of Samsung’s smartphone shipments. Samsung is also said to be developing a thinner version of the Z Flip 7 known as the Z Flip FE, a follow up to the Z Flip SE released this year, with total production, including previous models of ~7m units.
If Samsung is expecting to sell only 200,000 tri-fold smartphones this year, it indicates that Samsung is releasing the device in order to stay abreast of Huawei in terms of technology, but is less focused on generating sales, as both internal and external resources will be used for the tri-fold device, potentially diluting the development of the higher volume Z Flip and Fold. This comes at a time when the high price of foldable smartphones is slowing the segment’s growth and narrowing the customer base. It is understandable that Samsung and others feel the need to complete by, at the least, matching existing technology, but the point of selling smartphones is to make money, which means the focus of any foldable device development program should be to bring down the price, rather than releasing a device to maintain bragging rights.
Samsung’s tri-fold device is expected to be just under 10” when open, while the Huawei device is 10.1” and the Z Fold FE is 10.6mm when folded while Chinese brands are between 9mm and 10mm when folded, so Samsung is not ‘breaking through’ specifications with its devices, it is just keeping pace. With the relatively poor sales of the Z Fold SE (<100,000 units cumulative), this game is not bringing in new, high-volume customers, its saving face. Instead of putting out a ‘me too’ product, we believe Samsung would be far better off skipping the tri-fold smartphone and working toward a 4-segment device, which would take a 6” (diagonal smartphone and create an unfolded display almost 6” high and 10.6” wide. Yes, it would need four hinges and would be about 13mm thick, or slightly over ½ inch when folded, but it would open to the size of a medium to large size tablet. Forget the copy and take a step ahead.
If Samsung is expecting to sell only 200,000 tri-fold smartphones this year, it indicates that Samsung is releasing the device in order to stay abreast of Huawei in terms of technology, but is less focused on generating sales, as both internal and external resources will be used for the tri-fold device, potentially diluting the development of the higher volume Z Flip and Fold. This comes at a time when the high price of foldable smartphones is slowing the segment’s growth and narrowing the customer base. It is understandable that Samsung and others feel the need to complete by, at the least, matching existing technology, but the point of selling smartphones is to make money, which means the focus of any foldable device development program should be to bring down the price, rather than releasing a device to maintain bragging rights.
Samsung’s tri-fold device is expected to be just under 10” when open, while the Huawei device is 10.1” and the Z Fold FE is 10.6mm when folded while Chinese brands are between 9mm and 10mm when folded, so Samsung is not ‘breaking through’ specifications with its devices, it is just keeping pace. With the relatively poor sales of the Z Fold SE (<100,000 units cumulative), this game is not bringing in new, high-volume customers, its saving face. Instead of putting out a ‘me too’ product, we believe Samsung would be far better off skipping the tri-fold smartphone and working toward a 4-segment device, which would take a 6” (diagonal smartphone and create an unfolded display almost 6” high and 10.6” wide. Yes, it would need four hinges and would be about 13mm thick, or slightly over ½ inch when folded, but it would open to the size of a medium to large size tablet. Forget the copy and take a step ahead.
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