Google Joins the Fold
Google (GOOG) has now (almost) joined the list of smartphone brands that have released foldable smartphones, with the announcement of the Google Pixel Fold, the company’s first foldable model. With Samsung on its 4th yearly iteration, and foldables from 7 other major smartphone brands, Google, and Apple (AAPL) were among the few that have not joined the foldable craze. The Pixel Fold itself, is as close as one might come to a Galaxy Z Fold 4 clone, with only fractional differences in size and features, and, not unsurprisingly, the same price as the Z Fold 4, although if you pre-order, you can get a Google watch for free.
As the Pixel Fold is still to be delivered there is little real-world data to see how consumers find the software and applications, but there is one feature that seems somewhat noteworthy. When using the main screen to make a presentation, the presenter is able to see the same images on the back screen, giving the ability to make sure the verbiage is in sync with the display presentation. It’s a simple application, but a helpful one that gives some indication that Google is thinking more about applications than hardware, which is likely a better direction for them to go, rather than battle Samsung point for point.
Growth expectations are considerable for foldable smartphones this year, with estimates ranging between 30% and 51% growth in unit’s y/y, but the absolute numbers are still relatively small, and even smaller looking when compared to the overall smartphone market. Even at the top end of the growth estimates, foldable smartphone unit volume is likely to be less than 2%, but with the average smartphone selling for ~$300, foldables sell at a huge premium. Samsung Electronics, who has been the leader in the foldable smartphone space for years, had an over 80% share last year and with such premium pricing, and a weak smartphone market, we expect more of the same this year, and likely a new model (aside from the Z Fold/Flip 5 series) for the holidays, which will reinvigorate the hardware competition between brands, and potentially give those who have passed on foldables thus far, a reason to become more interested.
As the Pixel Fold is still to be delivered there is little real-world data to see how consumers find the software and applications, but there is one feature that seems somewhat noteworthy. When using the main screen to make a presentation, the presenter is able to see the same images on the back screen, giving the ability to make sure the verbiage is in sync with the display presentation. It’s a simple application, but a helpful one that gives some indication that Google is thinking more about applications than hardware, which is likely a better direction for them to go, rather than battle Samsung point for point.
Growth expectations are considerable for foldable smartphones this year, with estimates ranging between 30% and 51% growth in unit’s y/y, but the absolute numbers are still relatively small, and even smaller looking when compared to the overall smartphone market. Even at the top end of the growth estimates, foldable smartphone unit volume is likely to be less than 2%, but with the average smartphone selling for ~$300, foldables sell at a huge premium. Samsung Electronics, who has been the leader in the foldable smartphone space for years, had an over 80% share last year and with such premium pricing, and a weak smartphone market, we expect more of the same this year, and likely a new model (aside from the Z Fold/Flip 5 series) for the holidays, which will reinvigorate the hardware competition between brands, and potentially give those who have passed on foldables thus far, a reason to become more interested.
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