Holiday Tidbits

Holiday Tidbits
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​We have previously presented a bit of data concerning the Chinese National Holiday that began on September 25 and ended on October 5, primarily general data on the broad CE space.  Since then we were able to squeeze out some specifics on TVs during the holidays.  It is not much but it certainly gives some insight into how the diminishing subsidies are affecting various CE products on the mainland.

• During the holiday 1.15 million units (color TVs according the Chinese data, which we read to mean LCD TVs).  This was down 21.8% y/y and down 8.2% against 2023 volume.  Sales were ~5.3 billion, down 22.3% y/y and flat with 2023.  Some noteworthy points were:
• The trend toward large TV sizes slowed
• The share of 75” TVs, the China’s ‘average’ size category, declined by 2.3%
• Mini-LED TV penetration was over 30%
• More specifically for the on-line market, Mini-LED share was 31.8%, up 2.9% y/y and was 36.9% for the off-line market in China, up 5.8%

The tone of reports on the poor sales results for the holiday were still upbeat, despite the gloomy results, but the Chinese TV space has been defining its growth as the product of  price increases and larger average TV size growth.  As prices for Tv panels have been declining of late, the lack of TV average size growth is alarming.  While panel producers have been able to use utilization as a tool for balancing supply they have not had to grapple with slow size growth in addition to flat or declining panel prices.  Whether this is a new paradigm or just a short-term cycle is unknown, but in either case it does not bode well for 4Q results in the TV space.