_TV panel shipments down but area up says Chinese firm
Beijing based Sigmaintell has indicated that 258m LCD TV panels were shipped in 2016, down 2.5% y/y, but the surface area of same has increased by 8% based on the increases in average panel size, which they estimate at 42.7”. Current estimates have been falling between 250m and 270m, depending on the low-end size cutoff, but the general trend is similar to their estimates. They break down what they believe are the panel size shares, which we compare against our estimates made earlier this year and those from 2015.
We had expected more of a drop-off in 32” TV panels, which are considered entry-level and have been the largest category for a number of years as they are quite common in emerging countries. Sigmaintell's data seems to conflict with that notion, which was fostered by conversations with a number of panel producers that were lamenting the fact that Chinese panel producers have ‘taken over’ the 32” TV panel market by offering panels priced below those of Taiwan, Korean, or Japanese firms. Their thought was that the need for 32” panels would decline quickly in 2016 as entry-level products moved up the size chain. We are wary of the data from Sigmaintell on 32” TV panels as we do believe the size declined, and likely smaller sizes, which we do not include, are figured into their larger share number. Great minds think alike in the 39” to 45” size category, but we diverge again in the 55” category, where we believe there was expansion, while they see a decline. Given that this specific size has been one seeing significant growth over the last few years, we question such a steep decline. The 65” category remains small enough that estimates vary little, but given the relative size of the screens involved, even small changes in share can influence the total area significantly as it is just under 40% larger when compared to a 55” TV screen.
While unit shipment share has a lesser value than dollars generated, Sigmaintell offers these LCD TV unit volume share comparisons for the top 6 panel producers: (see below). As we do not yet have accurate sales data for December across the display producer space, in the table below we show TV panel revenue share, using a typical December sales estimate of -5% m/m:
(see below)
We had expected more of a drop-off in 32” TV panels, which are considered entry-level and have been the largest category for a number of years as they are quite common in emerging countries. Sigmaintell's data seems to conflict with that notion, which was fostered by conversations with a number of panel producers that were lamenting the fact that Chinese panel producers have ‘taken over’ the 32” TV panel market by offering panels priced below those of Taiwan, Korean, or Japanese firms. Their thought was that the need for 32” panels would decline quickly in 2016 as entry-level products moved up the size chain. We are wary of the data from Sigmaintell on 32” TV panels as we do believe the size declined, and likely smaller sizes, which we do not include, are figured into their larger share number. Great minds think alike in the 39” to 45” size category, but we diverge again in the 55” category, where we believe there was expansion, while they see a decline. Given that this specific size has been one seeing significant growth over the last few years, we question such a steep decline. The 65” category remains small enough that estimates vary little, but given the relative size of the screens involved, even small changes in share can influence the total area significantly as it is just under 40% larger when compared to a 55” TV screen.
While unit shipment share has a lesser value than dollars generated, Sigmaintell offers these LCD TV unit volume share comparisons for the top 6 panel producers: (see below). As we do not yet have accurate sales data for December across the display producer space, in the table below we show TV panel revenue share, using a typical December sales estimate of -5% m/m:
(see below)
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