Meta Madness Slowdown
The Metaverse is, if nothing else, the point at which the CE space generates the most current hype, with companies making sure to mention their connection to the Metaverse, however tenuous, at every public juncture, while investors seem to be willing to assume such massive growth that valuations become meaningless. While crypto currencies have their own issues, much of the Metaverse hype is tied to crypto and NFTs, where the days of the Gold Rush, tulip mania, and the more recent dot.com bubbles look modest in comparison. That said, does the hype continue into 2022 and beyond or does it slowly fade away as the reality of the Metaverse becomes more apparent?
Since the Metaverse, in its real form is based on VR, while development of flashy Metaverse ‘universes’ will continue and tools to develop then get better, we believe the limitations imposed by VR headsets will bring the hype down to a more reasonable level with large stakeholders generating hope and hints of extraordinary and easy to come by wealth, while unit volumes remain the metric to watch. In that regard, we note that Facebook’s (FB) Oculus VR headset line is without question the most popular VR headset, and has been for a number of years, accounting for between 73% and 78% of the VR market last year. The next iteration for the Oculus line is expected to be the Quest Pro, wireless headset with eye tracking, face tracking, and a slew of extras such as local depth sensors that can map the user’s environment to the display or sense when someone enters their movement field and a ‘record’ function that captures a few seconds of VR data that can be played back before resuming the game.
The new Oculus headset is expected this year, and while component shortages and similar issues might push that toward the 2nd half or into 2023, the Metaverse hype machine will restart when the headset is released. In the interim, the Metaverse publicity machines will shift a bit toward AR, where the Metaverse itself is not directly involved but could help to keep Metaverse momentum alive until the seminal Oculus event. AR does have some direct and practical applications and as it does not exclude the user from reality, is a less immersive but more ‘natural’ (we use that term loosely) and easier to accomplish from a technical standpoint. That said, nothing helps to move technology forward more quickly than the profit motive and while manufacturing and business applications for AR are the ones that will pay premiums for hardware and service, everyday AR applications that can give the user the ability to visually search will likely be the topic of focus for AR this year. If and when a manufacturer can come up with a truly wearable AR ‘headset’ that can use eye tracking to pull up information on products as the user walks through everyday situations, the Metaverse will become secondary to the sales gathering potential for AR. Maybe Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Facebook, Xiaomi (1810.HK) or Vuzix (VUZI) will make that happen this year, but until then we will have to be content with reality.
We estimate Oculus headset shipments for 2020 and 2021 below. More to come…
Since the Metaverse, in its real form is based on VR, while development of flashy Metaverse ‘universes’ will continue and tools to develop then get better, we believe the limitations imposed by VR headsets will bring the hype down to a more reasonable level with large stakeholders generating hope and hints of extraordinary and easy to come by wealth, while unit volumes remain the metric to watch. In that regard, we note that Facebook’s (FB) Oculus VR headset line is without question the most popular VR headset, and has been for a number of years, accounting for between 73% and 78% of the VR market last year. The next iteration for the Oculus line is expected to be the Quest Pro, wireless headset with eye tracking, face tracking, and a slew of extras such as local depth sensors that can map the user’s environment to the display or sense when someone enters their movement field and a ‘record’ function that captures a few seconds of VR data that can be played back before resuming the game.
The new Oculus headset is expected this year, and while component shortages and similar issues might push that toward the 2nd half or into 2023, the Metaverse hype machine will restart when the headset is released. In the interim, the Metaverse publicity machines will shift a bit toward AR, where the Metaverse itself is not directly involved but could help to keep Metaverse momentum alive until the seminal Oculus event. AR does have some direct and practical applications and as it does not exclude the user from reality, is a less immersive but more ‘natural’ (we use that term loosely) and easier to accomplish from a technical standpoint. That said, nothing helps to move technology forward more quickly than the profit motive and while manufacturing and business applications for AR are the ones that will pay premiums for hardware and service, everyday AR applications that can give the user the ability to visually search will likely be the topic of focus for AR this year. If and when a manufacturer can come up with a truly wearable AR ‘headset’ that can use eye tracking to pull up information on products as the user walks through everyday situations, the Metaverse will become secondary to the sales gathering potential for AR. Maybe Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Facebook, Xiaomi (1810.HK) or Vuzix (VUZI) will make that happen this year, but until then we will have to be content with reality.
We estimate Oculus headset shipments for 2020 and 2021 below. More to come…
Oculus VR Headset Unit Shipments - Source: SCMR LLC, Company Data
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