Mini-LEDs – Weakness?
Mini-LEDs are a display improvement that will help to sustain LCD technology during the next few years as it is buffeted by competition from OLED technology. But a number of firms have lowered their expectations for Mini-LED unit volumes this year, even as Apple (AAPL) seems to be adopting the technology more deeply. There is a reason and it is really quite obvious in that the price of LCD panels has increased throughout most of the 2020 and 2021 years while OLED displays have not seen comparable price increases. As Mini-LEDs are relatively new from a production standpoint, they are expensive and when coupled with increased panel price costs, have slowed their adoption among consumers. The combined higher LCD panel cost and the high price of the Mini-LED backlight have given OLED more ground in which to compete and estimates for Mini-LED notebooks are now expected to fall below those of OLED notebooks.
But is this a sustainable issue? Not in our view, as the price for large panel LCD displays has begun to fall and the Mini-LED supply chain is expanding rapidly. As we have previously noted, we expect real progress from Mini-LED backlighting to begin in earnest in 2022 as competition increases and costs decrease. Coupled with TV panel price reductions, this should make Mini-LED TVs more competitive and better able to compete with OLED TVs, although OLED TV production costs have also seen reductions as LG Display expanded capacity at its Guangzhou large panel OLED fab. Mini-OLED usage in notebooks will be a more difficult challenge as panel prices in the IT space have not declined, but the promise of more Apple mobile devices using Mini-LEDs will expand momentum next year.
Given that Samsung (005730.KS) is a big proponent of OLED notebooks, the battle between display technologies in that space will be a more complex one, but in the TV space we expect to see a number of new brands entering the Mini-LED TV market in 2022, especially as Chinese panel producer BOE (200725.CH) is trying to build a business as a source of Mini-LED backlight units to local panel producers As long as we don’t see excessive large panel price increases in 2022, we expect overall Mini-LED adoption to expand and become meaningful in the premium TV category during the 2022 holiday season.
But is this a sustainable issue? Not in our view, as the price for large panel LCD displays has begun to fall and the Mini-LED supply chain is expanding rapidly. As we have previously noted, we expect real progress from Mini-LED backlighting to begin in earnest in 2022 as competition increases and costs decrease. Coupled with TV panel price reductions, this should make Mini-LED TVs more competitive and better able to compete with OLED TVs, although OLED TV production costs have also seen reductions as LG Display expanded capacity at its Guangzhou large panel OLED fab. Mini-OLED usage in notebooks will be a more difficult challenge as panel prices in the IT space have not declined, but the promise of more Apple mobile devices using Mini-LEDs will expand momentum next year.
Given that Samsung (005730.KS) is a big proponent of OLED notebooks, the battle between display technologies in that space will be a more complex one, but in the TV space we expect to see a number of new brands entering the Mini-LED TV market in 2022, especially as Chinese panel producer BOE (200725.CH) is trying to build a business as a source of Mini-LED backlight units to local panel producers As long as we don’t see excessive large panel price increases in 2022, we expect overall Mini-LED adoption to expand and become meaningful in the premium TV category during the 2022 holiday season.
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