Notebook Shipments to Get Better?
According to Taiwan-based Digitimes, global notebook shipments, which declined by 16% q/q and 24% y/y (our estimates differ at ↓15.0% q/q and ↓13.0% y/y in 2Q) will see shipments increase in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year. The 3Q increase is expected to be 12% in 3Q and 3% in 4Q according to Digitimes as brands push volumes to meet targets, albeit targets that have been lowered recently. Citing weakness in 2nd quarter and seasonality as the basis for the sequential increases, they see relatively little impact from the power issues in China.
As we have noted previously notebook panel shipments declined 12.2% in July as brans reduced orders to work down inventory, but we also saw little incentive for consumers to buy as prices on existing notebook inventory were high and brands seemed unwilling to offer steep discounts. While that should change a bit this month as inventory is consumed, albeit at a relatively slow arte, it would take a strong September to meet the Digitimes goal. We certainly don’t rule it out but look more to notebook panel shipments as early indicators of demand, even if that decline is a bit exaggerated. We are expecting the notebook panel market to tighten a bit and panel price declines to be less than in the past few months, but until demand at the consumer level picks up, we are a bit less optimistic about seasonal growth for notebook shipments in 3Q.
As we have noted previously notebook panel shipments declined 12.2% in July as brans reduced orders to work down inventory, but we also saw little incentive for consumers to buy as prices on existing notebook inventory were high and brands seemed unwilling to offer steep discounts. While that should change a bit this month as inventory is consumed, albeit at a relatively slow arte, it would take a strong September to meet the Digitimes goal. We certainly don’t rule it out but look more to notebook panel shipments as early indicators of demand, even if that decline is a bit exaggerated. We are expecting the notebook panel market to tighten a bit and panel price declines to be less than in the past few months, but until demand at the consumer level picks up, we are a bit less optimistic about seasonal growth for notebook shipments in 3Q.
Aggregate Notebook Shipments & Panel Shipments - 2Q 2019 - 2Q 2022 - Source: SCMR LLC, various
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