October Panel Shipments and Sales

October Panel Shipments and Sales
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Before we go further, September is almost an irrelevant month this year.  We know that shipments were up as brands added to inventory levels and panel producers pushed out as much product as possible.  We also know that there was a change in October.  As demand  slowed, brands pulled back orders, and panel producers lowered utilization in order to hold panel prices as steady as possible.  As noted above, that strategy has been working for many panel types, with only minor price degradation, but it has not been working as well for TV panels where brands are concerned that they might have built inventory level too high. This makes October the relevant month, where we expect to see lower shipments and lower sales, especially for those panel producers that specialize in TV set panels.  WE don’t expect a blood bath, but it will certainly be a more decisive month  than September, which was sort of a “What, me worry” month.
The metrics for the month (September) are:

• Shipments were up 4.1% m/m, up 5.0% y/y, but down 2.2% on a cumulative y/y basis.
• TV shipments were flat m/m while all other categories were up between 1.4% (Monitors) and 5.6% (tablets)
• All, including total shipments were up y/y, although monitor panels and total shipments were down on a cumulative y/y basis.
• Most large panel producers saw m/m sales gains, with LG Display (LPL) the strongest, and most small panel producers seeing sales flat or down m/m.

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