Oops – 5G
While 5G gets the headlines, we have previously noted that LTE (4G) continues to grow, hitting almost 6.2b subscribers by the end of 1Q, showing 10.4% y/y growth, and adding 584m subscribers in the previous 12 months.. LTE subscriptions now account for 63.8% of all global mobile subscriptions, according to the GSMA, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 66.8% of those subscriptions. According to the same data source, 5G subscriptions grew by 36% in 1Q of this year, reaching 298.4m subscribers globally, or just a bit over 3% of the total mobile market. That said, that number has changed drastically, as a supplier of the 5G China subscription data has revised their year-end China 5G subscriptions from 401m to 219.5m, an almost 55% reduction, based on receiving ‘new information’ concerning 2020 5G subscriptions on the Mainland, the details of which were not revealed.
As we noted last week, there are discrepancies in the data provided by state sources in China, which call into question whether the data has been ‘colored’ by state objectives, and the subscription data mentioned above fuels that fire, and calls into question other data, such as the number of Chinese base stations deployed or the 5G coverage maps on the Mainland. While there is no way to drill down through the state data, as the carriers in China that provide the data are also state run, we have to take the numbers at face value, but with the same wariness of self-aggrandizement that we see in the display space. Words like ‘expect to’ or ‘according to market demand’ don’t always translate exactly or can be missing from press releases, which can lead to assumptions concerning 5G that are a bit more dubious than originally expected. It is interesting that ‘glorious’ or ‘industry leading’ always seem to be translated correctly however.
As we noted last week, there are discrepancies in the data provided by state sources in China, which call into question whether the data has been ‘colored’ by state objectives, and the subscription data mentioned above fuels that fire, and calls into question other data, such as the number of Chinese base stations deployed or the 5G coverage maps on the Mainland. While there is no way to drill down through the state data, as the carriers in China that provide the data are also state run, we have to take the numbers at face value, but with the same wariness of self-aggrandizement that we see in the display space. Words like ‘expect to’ or ‘according to market demand’ don’t always translate exactly or can be missing from press releases, which can lead to assumptions concerning 5G that are a bit more dubious than originally expected. It is interesting that ‘glorious’ or ‘industry leading’ always seem to be translated correctly however.
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