Samsung Success with Flip & Fold?
It is still early in the foldable smartphone cycle, even with the August 11 release of Samsung’s (005930.KS) 3rd foldable series iteration, the Galaxy Z Fold 3 and the Galaxy Z Flip 3. With shipments beginning in South Korea on August 24 and in a number of other countries by the 2nd week in September, there are a few data points coming in as to how the devices are selling. These are anecdotal at best and in some cases represent what dealers ‘expect’ rather than what has already been delivered, but it seems the units are selling reasonably well thus far.
Given that South Korea, Samsung’s home court, dealers were able to start accepting orders early, and thus far ~1m units have been sold in Korea, which is more than the very popular Galaxy Note 10 (8/23/19) and the Galaxy S8 (4/21/17) sold in an equivalent period, with 270,000 activations on the first day of sales. JD.COM (JD) was said to have a total of 700,000 waitlisted orders at the end of August, while TMall (BABA) was said to have 168,000 in the queue at the same time.
More surprising is that India seems to have also fallen for the new foldables, with 1st day orders said to be 2.7 times that of the Note 20 (Announced 8/5/20) and is expected to exceed the Note 20 in overall sales, although we note that sales of the Note series had been declining for the last few years. More surprising was the statement that 60% of the sales of the two foldables in India were for the more expensive Galaxy Z Fold and that 25% of those phones turned in for Fold price rebates were iPhones.
In China, where Samsung’s smartphone share has dwindled to ~1% over the last few years, the new Fold series sold 35,000 units and for the first time in many years, said phones made it into the top 10 in China for the month of September. While some are touting that increased interest as a way for Samsung to find its way back into the Chinese market, with domestic brands representing 93.8% of total shipments in China, its going to take a lot of foldables to gain significant unit share for Samsung, although from a sales value standpoint things might be better, as the average smartphone price in China is a bit over $400, while the price of the Z Flip 3 and Z Fold 3 is ~$1,150 and $2,350 respectively.
Expectations for the Flip 3 and Fold 3 are for ~7m units sold this year and while the phone has barely been rolled out globally, expectations are already rising as such narratives about orders and sales appear. Samsung is said to have begun to expand production at its assembly plant in Bac Ninh, Vietnam, one of three in that country, in order to alleviate potential delivery issues. While we are encouraged by such patter, it would seem to be a bit early in the Flip/Fold 3 cycle to be making suppositions about 2021 shipments as we head into the holiday season.
Given that South Korea, Samsung’s home court, dealers were able to start accepting orders early, and thus far ~1m units have been sold in Korea, which is more than the very popular Galaxy Note 10 (8/23/19) and the Galaxy S8 (4/21/17) sold in an equivalent period, with 270,000 activations on the first day of sales. JD.COM (JD) was said to have a total of 700,000 waitlisted orders at the end of August, while TMall (BABA) was said to have 168,000 in the queue at the same time.
More surprising is that India seems to have also fallen for the new foldables, with 1st day orders said to be 2.7 times that of the Note 20 (Announced 8/5/20) and is expected to exceed the Note 20 in overall sales, although we note that sales of the Note series had been declining for the last few years. More surprising was the statement that 60% of the sales of the two foldables in India were for the more expensive Galaxy Z Fold and that 25% of those phones turned in for Fold price rebates were iPhones.
In China, where Samsung’s smartphone share has dwindled to ~1% over the last few years, the new Fold series sold 35,000 units and for the first time in many years, said phones made it into the top 10 in China for the month of September. While some are touting that increased interest as a way for Samsung to find its way back into the Chinese market, with domestic brands representing 93.8% of total shipments in China, its going to take a lot of foldables to gain significant unit share for Samsung, although from a sales value standpoint things might be better, as the average smartphone price in China is a bit over $400, while the price of the Z Flip 3 and Z Fold 3 is ~$1,150 and $2,350 respectively.
Expectations for the Flip 3 and Fold 3 are for ~7m units sold this year and while the phone has barely been rolled out globally, expectations are already rising as such narratives about orders and sales appear. Samsung is said to have begun to expand production at its assembly plant in Bac Ninh, Vietnam, one of three in that country, in order to alleviate potential delivery issues. While we are encouraged by such patter, it would seem to be a bit early in the Flip/Fold 3 cycle to be making suppositions about 2021 shipments as we head into the holiday season.
Samsung Bac Ninh Assembly Complex - Source: Google Earth
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