The Dance of Death?
The US government’s ban on TikTok (pvt) has resulted in a high-stakes poker game that involves the US Supreme Court, the incoming President, one of the largest companies in China, and at the tail end of the chain, lots of US citizens. The Chinese company ByteDance (pvt) has said that if the US Supreme Court does not intervene, it will shut down the TikTok app in the US on Sunday, January 19, with some foreign commentary stating that “Americans may face unemployment and plummeting incomes, and the US new economy will collapse overnight” if the shutdown occurs. Underlying those radical statements comes the concept that 5 million small and medium sized US businesses use TikTok to promote their products.
We doubt the potential ban of TikTok would presume financial collapse in the US and ByteDance has already (Since early 2023) cloned TikTok with Lemon8. While its user base is only a small fraction of that of TikTok, TikTok influencers have been pointing to the Lemon8 app as the ‘place to go’ if TikTok is shut down. Unfortunately, as ByteDance is the owner of Lemon8, it could fall pray to the same US regulations that are causing the TikTok issues, but as it has not been explicitly named, it might be able to either dance around the rules or wind up in the maelstrom of courtroom battles for years.
President Trump holds the cards currently, as he has the potential to use an executive order to postpone the potential ban and is adept at using the courts to cause things to grind to a halt if he so desires, so if it seems that the ban might leave a stain on the early days of the new administration, the odds are that a compromise will be reached and the US economy and its cadre of TikTok users will not permanently be denied an endless supply of videos about pretty much anything. The three most popular on TikTok now are “Laura B. Healthy promoting a good breakfast and her relationship with Nature’s Bounty”, a very nice guy cutting the lawn for a very old lady (for free), and a promotion for Saturday Night Live. If being unable to view those collapses the US economy our economic system is a bit flawed.
We doubt the potential ban of TikTok would presume financial collapse in the US and ByteDance has already (Since early 2023) cloned TikTok with Lemon8. While its user base is only a small fraction of that of TikTok, TikTok influencers have been pointing to the Lemon8 app as the ‘place to go’ if TikTok is shut down. Unfortunately, as ByteDance is the owner of Lemon8, it could fall pray to the same US regulations that are causing the TikTok issues, but as it has not been explicitly named, it might be able to either dance around the rules or wind up in the maelstrom of courtroom battles for years.
President Trump holds the cards currently, as he has the potential to use an executive order to postpone the potential ban and is adept at using the courts to cause things to grind to a halt if he so desires, so if it seems that the ban might leave a stain on the early days of the new administration, the odds are that a compromise will be reached and the US economy and its cadre of TikTok users will not permanently be denied an endless supply of videos about pretty much anything. The three most popular on TikTok now are “Laura B. Healthy promoting a good breakfast and her relationship with Nature’s Bounty”, a very nice guy cutting the lawn for a very old lady (for free), and a promotion for Saturday Night Live. If being unable to view those collapses the US economy our economic system is a bit flawed.
Figure 1 - Danse Macabre - Multiple artists - 1463 - Lubeck, Germany - Source: Atlas Obscura
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