The Party’s Over…
Yesterday we highlighted much of Samsung’s (005930.KS) TV line and potential new models to be released for the 2023 year. However actual sets and pricing are not released until mid to late 2Q, so we went back to check on TV set pricing for Samsung’s Mini-LED and quantum dot TV sets now that the holidays are over, and it seems that Samsung agrees that the holiday discount period has ended. Not only have prices increased, but Samsung is no longer offering a number of its 2021 Mini-LED/QD sets to consumers. Many of these sets are still available from retailers or 3rd party sellers on Amazon (AMZN), but the 2021 8K Mini-LED/QD sets (900A/800A) and the 2021 4K Mini-LED/QD sets are no longer offered, other than a single 55” 4K Mini-LED/QD model that saw a 40% increase in price over the last 43 days since our previous check. Samsung is still offering all of the quantum dot only TVs from 2021, as shown in the table below.
Samsung’s lines from last year are all still available but saw price increases between 0% and 120% from our last check, which was the day before Thanksgiving (2 days ahead of Black Friday). Two models in the 2021 line (of those that were still available) were equal to or at their lowest price, while only 3 were at their lowest price from the 2022 line, and we not that the 98” versions in all lines do not seem to be offered since last October. This could be relatively country local but given that the US is a strong ultra-large market, it seems unlikely. One a composite basis, the 2021 Samsung Mini-LED/QD and QD only lines saw a 4.6% increase in price since pre-Thanksgiving and are down 26.1% from their original price, although we only include those that are still available. The 2022 line, which remains fully available, saw a 17.4% composite price increase since 11/23/22 and is currently down 23.1% from initial pricing. Samsung’s QD/OLED TV line, which currently consists of 55” and 65” models, saw a price increase of 5.9% since 11/23/22 and is currently down 34.5% from its initial pricing.
As we would expect, almost all of the 2021 and 2022 Mini-LED/QD and QD only line reached lows around Black Friday 2022 as TV set brands sacrificed margin to move inventory which had been piling up as inflation worries dragged down consumer spending. While the price bounce back since Black Friday looks severe in some instances, for example Samsung’s 55” 4K Mini-LED/QD 95B series set jumped froma low of $1,000 on Black Friday to its current price of $2,200, that same set was selling for $2,200 in August of last year and began a downward spiral in September 2022 that led to the $1,000 holiday price. This was the extreme, although the upper tier 4K Mini-LED/QD models, especially the smaller sized TVs, saw the biggest holiday discounts and very oversized snap-back pricing currently. Samsung seems a bit lees inclined to offer more sustained discounts, as we expect inventory levels are more in line with demand and seasonality, but while internal TV set targets have been set for 2023, public acknowledgement of those tyargets has been withheld so far this year. We expect most brands will struggle to maintain positive y/y unit volumes in the TV space and will be a bit more rational about plans for 2023 after the 2H debacle last year.
Samsung’s lines from last year are all still available but saw price increases between 0% and 120% from our last check, which was the day before Thanksgiving (2 days ahead of Black Friday). Two models in the 2021 line (of those that were still available) were equal to or at their lowest price, while only 3 were at their lowest price from the 2022 line, and we not that the 98” versions in all lines do not seem to be offered since last October. This could be relatively country local but given that the US is a strong ultra-large market, it seems unlikely. One a composite basis, the 2021 Samsung Mini-LED/QD and QD only lines saw a 4.6% increase in price since pre-Thanksgiving and are down 26.1% from their original price, although we only include those that are still available. The 2022 line, which remains fully available, saw a 17.4% composite price increase since 11/23/22 and is currently down 23.1% from initial pricing. Samsung’s QD/OLED TV line, which currently consists of 55” and 65” models, saw a price increase of 5.9% since 11/23/22 and is currently down 34.5% from its initial pricing.
As we would expect, almost all of the 2021 and 2022 Mini-LED/QD and QD only line reached lows around Black Friday 2022 as TV set brands sacrificed margin to move inventory which had been piling up as inflation worries dragged down consumer spending. While the price bounce back since Black Friday looks severe in some instances, for example Samsung’s 55” 4K Mini-LED/QD 95B series set jumped froma low of $1,000 on Black Friday to its current price of $2,200, that same set was selling for $2,200 in August of last year and began a downward spiral in September 2022 that led to the $1,000 holiday price. This was the extreme, although the upper tier 4K Mini-LED/QD models, especially the smaller sized TVs, saw the biggest holiday discounts and very oversized snap-back pricing currently. Samsung seems a bit lees inclined to offer more sustained discounts, as we expect inventory levels are more in line with demand and seasonality, but while internal TV set targets have been set for 2023, public acknowledgement of those tyargets has been withheld so far this year. We expect most brands will struggle to maintain positive y/y unit volumes in the TV space and will be a bit more rational about plans for 2023 after the 2H debacle last year.
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