Trendforce Lowers TV Set Forecast, Again

Trendforce Lowers TV Set Forecast, Again
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Trendforce, in our view, one of the more aggressive estimators we watch, has lowered their 2025 TV unit shipment forecast to 195.71m units, down 1.1% y/y.  They cite the following reasons:

• High panel costs have (and will) hinder promotional discounting
• US shipment pull-ins have (~2% to 3%) will lower 2H shipment growth
• 60% of China’s consumer subsidy capital has been used to date, limiting subsidies for the holiday season

We note that Trendforce has lowered their full year 2025 TV shipment forecast a number of times since last year.  Here are the forecasts:

• November 2024          200.72m units             up 1.7% y/y
• December 2024          199.16 m units             up 0.9% y/y
• February 2025             197.80m units             down 0.2% y/y
• August 2025                 195.70m units             down 1.1% y/y

Trendforce estimates the following for the top 5 TV set brands for the first half of the year for both unit volume and share.  The substantial share increases at TCL () and Hisense () are the result of Chinese subsidies that have been in place since (officially) September of last year.  It was originally slated to end by the end of 1Q this year but has been extended.  Who says you can’t buy market share?: