Yesterday Seems So Far Away
Yesterday it was reported that as the 32% tariff in Taiwanese goods entering the US was about to begin, a number of key notebook brands were notifying their supply chain to suspend all notebook and related component shipments to the US for the next two weeks. Among the brands thought to have participated in the suspension are Dell (DELL), HP (HPE), Lenovo (992.HK), Asus (2357.TT), and Acer (2353.TT), although official statements have yet to be verified. Over the last 8 quarters, those 5 laptop brands represented between 72% and 76% of all laptop shipments.
While laptop brands have reacted quickly (and after today are likely regretting the idea), component manufacturers are not seeing a radical change in demand and see shipments as relatively normal thus far. Some hardware oriented component manufacturers have seen a few postponements, although discussions are ongoing about the potential for tariff sharing should they remain in force. That said, with the tariff front changing daily or hourly, the biggest issue is not the tariffs themselves but the inability of businesses, large and small, to plan on a forward basis, especially as trade talks between individual countries and the US will take weeks or months to resolve. We don’t need a war or pandemic to create economic instability, Trump is able to do that himself… +With only 1,306 days until the next election, a good CEO could promise to move production to the US but get bogged down in the contract details for a mere 186 weeks…
While laptop brands have reacted quickly (and after today are likely regretting the idea), component manufacturers are not seeing a radical change in demand and see shipments as relatively normal thus far. Some hardware oriented component manufacturers have seen a few postponements, although discussions are ongoing about the potential for tariff sharing should they remain in force. That said, with the tariff front changing daily or hourly, the biggest issue is not the tariffs themselves but the inability of businesses, large and small, to plan on a forward basis, especially as trade talks between individual countries and the US will take weeks or months to resolve. We don’t need a war or pandemic to create economic instability, Trump is able to do that himself… +With only 1,306 days until the next election, a good CEO could promise to move production to the US but get bogged down in the contract details for a mere 186 weeks…
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