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Monitor Envy – Its Here! (almost)

7/27/2021

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Monitor Envy – Its Here! (almost)
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On 7/15 we noted that Samsung (005930.KS) was expected to release its first Mini-LED gaming monitor, the Odyssey Neo G9, a curved, 5120x1440 resolution 49” quantum dot enhanced LCD display.  Samsung has confirmed that it will be releasing the device this week, and while it will be available in South Korea ($2,085), it will not be available elsewhere until August 9.  The display will use the same Mini-LEDs and Quantum Dot enhancement that Samsung uses in its Mini-LED TVs, and will have 2,048 dimming zones, giving it a peak brightness of 2,000 nits, although no average brightness, a more realistic figure, was given, and a contrast ratio of 1,000,000:1.  The response time is 240 Hz whilst the 5,120 x 1440 resolution is essentially two Quad HD screens next to each other in a single display.
While a direct comparison against other similar monitors is difficult given the fact that no other monitors we know of are billed as Mini-LED monitors although some have direct backlights with multiple zones.  That said, Samsung’s Mini-LED backlight system gives a higher level of backlight granularity than more typical edge-lit monitors or those with direct lit systems.  The Samsung Mini-LED monitor sets a new level for gaming monitors and while certainly expensive, is a level above others, at least in specs, and should push competing brands to adopt Mini-LED backlights going forward.
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The Incredible Shrinking Smartphone (Forecast)

7/27/2021

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The Incredible Shrinking Smartphone (Forecast)
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​Taiwan based Trendforce tends to be optimistic when making forecasts, but so far this year they have been unable to pin down a stable estimate for smartphone production in 2021.  Back in February they were estimating 1.367b units but only 3 month later lowered that number by about a half percent to 1.36b produced, as COVID-19 outbreaks in a number of countries gave pause to the outlook for 2H.  Once again, they have cut that forecast, this time by ~1% to 1.347b units, and have cautioned that it has the potential to be cut again if those outbreaks continue. 
While these are relatively small forecast cuts, they do show how volatile the CE market has been this year, and for those products, smartphones included, that are not part of the ‘stay-at-home’ surge, there has been little to get excited about.  Many CE companies have cited the impact of COVID-19 on transportation costs and factories in India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, all of whom were the recipients of new production capacity as many CE companies transitioned out of China, are now facing issues of their own, with government mandated factory closings and increasing outbreaks putting pressure on an industry (smartphones) that was already seeing little growth.  While the smartphone industry is focused on the upcoming Apple (AAPL) iPhone series, the rest of the industry is under the thumb of the pandemic once again, and will likely see further forecast reductions this year.
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Corning Beats

7/27/2021

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Corning Beats
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​Corning (GLW) reported 2Q results that were slightly ahead of consensus ($3.4b) at $3.5b in sales, up 6.4% q/q and up 36.7% y/y, with EPS (core) of $0.53, against consensus of $0.52.  Display sales grew 8.7% q/q and 24.6% y/y against an easy compare, while Net Income grew 16.4% q/q and 63.2% y/y, the best results since 2014, and margins grew from 24.7% last quarter to 26.4% in 2Q, against 20.2% in 2Q last year.  Specialty Materials grew sales by 7.1% q/q and 15.8% y/y, however Net Income declined by 11.0% q/q and 10.0% y/y, and margins declined from 20.2% last quarter to 16.8% in 2Q, against 21.6% in 2Q last year.  New product spending for the Specialty Materials division was given as the culprit for the lower margins, with no specific timetable for when that would be alleviated.
Guidance was tepid, at 3Q sales of $3.5 - $3.7b, against $3.55 consensus (GAAP), while EPS guidance was $0.54 to $0.59, against consensus of $0.57 - $0.58., with a bit of caution concerning inflation at various points in the company as a gating factor for margins, which saw a 150bps drag from such concerns in 2Q and are expected to see the same in 3Q.  While Corning has taken steps to alleviate those supply chain issues that were recognized in 2Q, they expect other potential issues in 3Q and expect that same 150 bps drag on margins again in 3Q.
While management cited the continuation of the company’s long-term goals, their near-term view in the display space, which includes specialty materials in our view, was a bit less straight forward.  The company raised glass pricing in 2Q and will do so again in 3Q to cover material cost inflation, but was unable to point to glass pricing in the shorter-term.  Glass pricing has been extremely favorable to Corning for the last few quarters, especially in 2021, but it seemed that they were more cautious on how glass pricing would play out for the remainder of the year and 2022.  We expect this is a function of the uncertainty over TV panel prices that we have mentioned previously, coupled with shortages that have plagued the CE space. 
With ~70% of the glass market based on TV panel surface area, Corning relies on average panel size increases to grow the glass market in display, but has had the added bonus of stable or increasing glass prices in recent quarters.  If panel prices flatten or decline, it could put some pressure on glass pricing, although the glass market has few participants and high capital costs, which insulates glass suppliers from panel price volatility more than most in the display supply chain.  All in, we believe Corning was being cautiously optimistic concerning the remainder of the year, at least in the display space, which we believe is the right approach.  If we were directly in the display supply chain, we would want to be the low-cost producer in a market served by few suppliers, no matter what the circumstances with panel pricing.  That’s where Corning is.
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Micro-LED Basics – Part 1

7/27/2021

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Micro-LED Basics – Part 1
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Note: As Micro-LEDs get more press, we thought it helpful to help generate some basic understanding of what micro-LEDs are and how they are made.  We will offer the series in relatively small chunks with the first below.  Stay tuned for more…
Micro-LEDs are being touted as a potential game-changing display technology, but not unlike other revolutionary display technologies, micro-LEDs will not come easily.  While they have some unique properties that make them well suited for displays, some of those same characteristics present potential problems that at best can take a significant time to conquer, and at worst, could keep the technology from ever being fully commercialized. That said, before we cast a negative pall over micro-LEDs, we also note that they have the potential to become a replacement display technology for almost any display application, once major stumbling blocks have been removed, so there is significant capital, time, and other resources being spent toward solving such problems, and similar challenges facing other display technologies were eventually addressed and met with solutions that enabled them to become major display technologies.
 In order to understand the potential of micro-LED technology, it is essential to understand what they are and how they are produced, with the understanding that few of these processes, materials, and equipment, are in either a final stage of development or have even met some consensus in the industry as to how they will be used or implemented, making the micro-LED space a fluid one, and not surprisingly, one that can change daily, weekly, or monthly.  There are some basics however that are.at least for now, inherent in understanding micro-LEDs, and we try to bring them to light below.
Micro-LED substrates
Micro-LEDs are similar to more typical LEDs used in LED lighting and as edge or direct-lit backlights used in LCD displays, however they are, as the name implies, considerably smaller.  There is no ‘official’ size that would make an LED be called a micro-LED, but on a general basis, standard LEDs range from about 5mm, which is the size of this ❿, down to .5mm or 500um.  Below 500um, such LEDs are called mini-LEDs, but once they go below 100um, they are generally called micro-LEDs.  For reference, a 5mm LED chip is .196” across, meaning about 5 could fit in a 1” line (no spaces) and 25 in a 1” square.  A 500um mini-LED is 0.019” inches wide, meaning 52 could fit in a 1” line, or 2,770 in a 1” square, and a 100um micro-LED is 0.039 inches across, with 254 in an inch and 64,516 in a 1” square.  Micro-LED displays used for near-eye applications such as AR or VR, can be as small as 2um, which is .0000787” wide, with 12,700 in an inch and 161.29m in a 1” square.
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​Producing LEDs is usually done on a sapphire crystal substrates grown in a high temperature chamber using the Kyropoulos method, which uses high purity aluminum Oxide that is heated in a tungsten crucible with a ‘seed’ crystal on which the material ‘grows’ as the temperature is gradually decreased.  The resulting 'boule' which can be as large as 300 kg, is them sliced into wafers and polished.  While the sapphire crystal has a particular orientation, meaning the way in which the crystal structures are linked, the surface of the sapphire crystal must be free from imperfections, and given how small micro-LED are, even the smallest hairline crack or pit could ruin a large group of micro-LEDs.  Each wafer is microscopically examined before it is used to verify its usability and in some cases a microscopic map is made of the surface.
There are other potential substrates for LEDs, with SiC (Silicon Carbide), Silicon (Si), and Gallium Nitride (GaN) being most researched, as each has advantages and disadvantages (cost is a big factor with silicon being the cheapest and GaN being the most expensive), but for the purpose of this note, we are focused primarily on sapphire substrates.
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Sapphire Boules - Source: Rubicon
Again in a typical setting, the wafer is polished by the wafer producer or outside service and then shipped to the LED producer.  The wafer is then examined again, cleaned, and loaded into a cassette that is used to automate the MOCVD (Metal Oxide Chemical Vapor Deposition) process.  The cassettes are loaded into a handler that sits between two MOCVD tools and loads them into the deposition chamber of each tool, which could be set-up to take eight 6” inch wafers or five 8” wafers.  We note that in terms of raw wafer surface area the 8 by 6” configuration is 20% larger which would imply higher throughput, but there are other considerations that also come into play in that decision, and there are also a number of single 8” wafer systems that clustered around a cassette handling system.. 
Once the wafer are placed in the MOCVD deposition chamber they are rotated individually at high speed (2,500 RPM) and depending on the particular MOCVD tool the entire susceptor plate (the metal wafer holder – Fig. 2) also spins.  In some tools the materials to be deposited enter the chamber through what is called a showerhead that is close to the wafers, with the spin allowing the wafers to be covered uniformly.  In other MOCVD tools the deposited materials are passed laterally across the spinning wafers in a configuration called ‘laminal flow’, which implies no turbulence in the materials, producing a uniform coating.  
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Susceptor Wafer Configuration - 8x6& 5x8 – Source: SCMR LLC
​In the past the type of material flow corresponded to a particular manufacturer and was a selling point that meant choosing one tool vendor or another, but now Aixtron (ARXA.GR) produces tools in both configurations, which allows customers who prefer a particular configuration to vendor options.  Veeco’s (VECO) MOCVD tools tend to be laminar flow oriented.  As we have not seen any data that gives one configuration a distinct advantage over the other, it seems to be a personal preference of the customer, likely driven by what they already have.  It’s not a hard and fast rule but parts and service costs are always lower if the tools are similar, so there is some stickiness to the choice of vendors. There is also the choice of the orientation of the reactor (horizontal or vertical), again a preference of the customer.
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Horizontal/Vertical Reactor Configurations - Source: SCMR LLC
Materials are released into the reaction chamber with a carrier gas (usually Nitrogen , Argon, or Hydrogen) where the wafers are heated to between 500®C and 1500®C, with some reactors being hot-walled, meaning the walls of the chamber (usually graphite or quartz) pick up the heat in the reaction chamber, while others are cold-walled, where coolant keeps the reactor walls at a lower temperature than the wafer surface, which means it accumulates less reactant materials.  For most LED type structures the materials that are sent into the reactor chamber are known as precursors, meaning they are not what is needed to create the final LED layers but are reactants that combine on the surface of the wafer to create the final structure. 
Typical precursors are Trimethylgallium or TMG, TrimethylIndium (TMI), and Trimethylaluminum (TMA), which supply the heavy metals, Arsine (AsH3) and Ammonia (NH3).  The materials react to each other on the surface of the wafer, hence the term Chemical Vapor Deposition and byproducts are pumped from the chamber.  We note that these are volatile and dangerous materials and are extremely hazardous to the environment, so the cost of disposing of such materials and agents used to clean the chamber must be included in any cost of ownership calculation.
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Each layer of the materials needed to create the LED structure is deposited through similar chemical reactions until the entire wafer is coated with what amounts to a stack of materials.  Once the deposition process is completed, the wafers are removed from the chamber and move to the etching process where resist, etch materials and masks are used to remove some of the layers to create individual LED structures.
More to come…
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Display Industry Summary – June

7/26/2021

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Display Industry Summary – June
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There was one statistic that stood out in June concerning the large panel display market.  June was the first month that saw negative y/y large panel shipment comparisons since March of 2020, 15 months ago.  While this is not something unexpected, as we have noted the potential for this occurrence a number of times, we had been expecting such comparisons to go negative first in July.  June display industry sales came in at $7.47t US, 3.25% lower than our expectation but still up 42.6% y/y, and while large panel ASP’s have been rising since last May, June was the first month where they saw a decline, albeit a small one, down 0.1% with the average large panel ASP monthly increase being 3.6% this year and 3.2% over the last 12 months. 
We expect panel producers will pass off the shipment and ASP issues as a function of component shortages which have limited shipments, but while we believe there are certainly component shortages that are limiting panel shipments, it is very difficult to discern whether a change in demand has also affected both industry characteristics in June.  As we noted above, we would have expected slower shipments in July, but not a lower ASP as we had expected overall panel prices to continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate than in the past year.  
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Panel prices rose in June, as we previously noted, but are expected to see more modest increases this month, as indicated below, with TV prices almost flat.  We expect large panel shipments to be flat to down in July, which will put additional pressure on panel producer results, particularly TV panels.  While there could be an improvement in shipments in August as back-to-school inventory buys might be needed, both component shortages and seasonally slow summer sales will likely keep the potential increase to a minimum.  That said, we do expect modest price increases for notebooks and monitors, in August but not for TVs, which would keep large panel display sales flat for many panel producers.
In June many large panel producers saw negative m/m sales growth, with AU Optronics (AUOTY) in Taiwan, and Chinastar (pvt), HKC (0248.HK), and CHOT (pvt) in China, the exceptions.  The purchase of Samsung’s (005930.KS) Suzhou LCD fab is helping Chinastar’s sales, and both HKC and CHOT are expanding capacity, however BOE (200725.CH), China’s largest LCD panel producer saw negative m/m growth in sales, similar to South Korean and Taiwan large panel producers, and we would expect those trends to continue into this month.  We exclude those panel producers that are primarily small panel focused.
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Large Panel Display Shipments - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, Company Data
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Large Panel Display Sales - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, Company Data
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Large Panel ASP - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, Company Data
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TV Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
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Monitor Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
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Notebook Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
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Tablet Shipments - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
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Aggregate TV PAnel Pricing & ROC - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Company Data
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Aggregate Monitor Panel Pricing & ROC - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Company Data
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Aggregate Notebook Panel Pricing &ROC - 2019 - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Company Data
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Samsung Goes All-in On S-Pen

7/26/2021

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Samsung Goes All-in On S-Pen
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​As we have previously noted, Samsung is expected to include the ability to use the S-Pen device on its upcoming Galaxy Z Fold 3 to be announced next month.  The S-Pen has been an integral part of the Samsung Galaxy Note series that has been around since 2011.  Samsung has ‘leaked’ the Z Fold 3 pricing in South Korea, which is expected to be between $1,500 and $1,660, however unlike the Galaxy Note series there will not be a slot in the Z Fold 3 to store the S-Pen.  While this seems to already be a focus point for some bloggers, despite the expected lower overall price of the new model, it seems Samsung is also offering a case for the Z Fold 3 that includes a slot for the S-Pen, with the cost of the case and the pen in South Korea ~$76.00 US (the pen alone is ~$34 US).
Those spending ~$1,600 for a new smartphone, especially one that will have a foldable display that will be expensive to replace, should not hesitate to purchase a case for the phone, which will solve the S-Pen issue, and there will likely be a variety of alternative cases available once the official announcement is made, so the S-Pen ‘controversy’ should disappear.  That said, Samsung also seems to have very significant confidence in the new Z Fold and how the price will affect sales, as the word among component suppliers is that Samsung has ordered 100,000 units of the Z Fold 3 for South Korean release, which is 10x the previous version, including last year’s pre-ordered units.  If Samsung does sell through this large order quickly, it will set the tone for the entire foldable series to replace the Galaxy Note, which has seen declining sales over the last few years.  Samsung has considered ending the series this year, but needs to fill the gap among it user base by offering the S-Pen with the Z Fold 3 to those that are already Samsung pen fans.  Samsung is also expected to offer a ‘pro’ version of the pen that will allow gestures via bluetooth.
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Amazon Hard Ball

7/26/2021

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Amazon Hard Ball
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BOE – Straight From the Horse’s Mouth

7/23/2021

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BOE – Straight From the Horse’s Mouth
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While Chinese panel producers tend to be a bit opaque when it comes to revealing critical information about details of their operations, there are some rules in China (at least for public companies) that make it possible to gain a bit of perspective on company philosophy or focus at a given point in time.  That said, as we have noted in the past, many such conversations are carefully worded to obscure details, but at least some nuance and specific information shows up occasionally.  As with most public corporations, Chinese firms do have conference calls, albeit in local language, which leaves us primarily English speaking folks to either read summaries, which can be biased, or hope that the company releases a summary transcript in some reasonable time.
As the country’s largest panel producer, BOE (200725.CH) does just that and we look at the relatively short Q&A as a bit of help in understanding the company’s current views.  Here is a collection of the most recent Q&A which took place about a week ago.  Our comments are in red and what we believe to be translation errors are in parentheses.
“How do you view the future industry landscape?  Does periodicity still exist?”
Judging from the past industry development process, the panel industry is (a) cyclical.  In the industry, the main reason for the formation cycle in the past was the concentrated release of production capacity in a short period of time.  This led to oversupply, an imbalance between supply and demand, and panel prices fell sharply. As supply and demand close, the system gradually balances, and panel prices gradually return to normal levels.
 
Judging from the background of this round of panel price recovery and the characteristics of the process, it is different from the past.  The cyclical rise is different. We believe that the semiconductor display industry will move in the future, cyclical characteristics, and become an industry with certain growth:
 
(T)he industry’s memory capacity and production capacity gradually withdraw(al), the total amount of new capacity is limited, and the pace of capacity release is slow, and the market share is gradually increasing.  The industry’s leading companies, including the company (BOE), are concentrated, the industry concentration has increased significantly, and the supply and demand structure (sees) continuous improvement.
 
In the future, the rapid development of the LCD industry driven by investment will gradually enter a mature period.  A sharp cyclicality dominated by the supply cycle turns into a narrow wave affected by the low and peak demand seasons.  As a leading company in the industry, the company's profitability is expected to remain at a good level.
 
Simply put, “This time it is different”.  We expect that philosophy to hold until he first quarter of panel price declines, at which point it will change to something like, “as the industry leader, we are able to withstand those periods when declining panel prices challenge profitability for competitors.”
 
“How do you view current and future panel price trends?”
 
According to data from third-party consulting agencies, since June 2020, panel prices continue to rise, and this round of panel price increases has lasted for more than a year.  The current supply and demand of IT products, which account for a higher proportion of the company’s revenue, is still very tight.  The industry is showing an upward trend, and the price increase trend is expected to continue until the end of the year or even 2022.
 
(In) the first quarter the price increase of TV products, which accounts for the second largest proportion of the company’s revenue, will show (a) divergent trend potential. The supply and demand of large-size LCD panels are still tight, and the prices of 65- and 75-inch TV products are It is hoped (that it) will continue to increase for 1-2 months.  (relatively) Small TV panels such as 32-inch, 43 inches, due to the large increase in the previous period, the next price increase space is limited.
 
First chink in the panel pricing armor, essentially panel price increases will be specific to certain products rather than across the board.  We expect panel buyers to step back a bit if TV panel prices flatten or weaken, but the ability to fill specific inventory gaps will keep panel producers thinking that they are still in the driver’s seat as to pricing.  If holiday demand is weak, the refill rate in early 2022 will disappoint and the leverage will shift to the buy side..  We believe it will be difficult for some panel producers to recognize this issue, while some have been anticipating such an event already.
 

“How is the company's flexible AMOLED business progressing? What is the yield, Household situation, and shipment situation?”
 
The overall shipment volume continues to increase. The current situation is good, and the production line is climbing.  The exhibition went smoothly, especially the shipment volume of key customers and key projects exceeded expectations. Currently mature, the yield rate of AMOLED products can reach over 85%.
 
The company has provided high-end flexible AMOLED products for many global top-tier brands.
Next, we will continue to develop more product series for brand customers. The future follows the increase in customer demand and the smooth climb of the company’s flexible AMOLED production line.  Product shipments are expected to continue to grow rapidly, and the operation of flexible AMOLED production lines will continue (to) improve.
 
We are skeptical concerning utilization rates at BOE’s OLED fabs, not because we believe they are low, but more as to what they include.  BOE currently has two Gen 6 OLED fabs that are in full production, a third which is in the final expansion stage, and a 4th that is under construction.  Panel producers have been known to include production lines that help such statistics, while excluding those that are still in low-yield start-up mode.  Given that such utilization rate estimates are unqualified, we take such statements with a grain of salt.  That said, if BOE’s active small panel utilization is over 85% that would be a positive for the company.
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“How about the company's depreciation in the next few years?”
 
In terms of inventory depreciation, there will be multiple LCDs starting from 2021.  The depreciation of the production line has expired in terms of increments (the flexible AMOLED production).  In the future, the company's overall depreciation scale will still increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly.
 
A bit hard to decipher but we take this to mean that the depreciation of its LCD fabs has ended or is close to, but the expansion of the company’s OLED production will continue to increase depreciation, albeit at a slower rate than in the past when both LCD and OLED fabs were included.
“How is the company's Mini LED business progressing?”
 
Mini LED business is an important component of the company’s "1+4+N" business group section. The company has a comprehensive layout in the Mini LED industry, initially focusing on TV products. (Mini)
 
The use of LED as a backlight with LCD can improve the display effect of LCD.  The industry takes the lead in realizing the formal mass production of glass-based active Mini LED products, with a 75-inch COG.  Mini LED backlight products achieved mass production and delivery.
 
               While BOE is producing Mini-LED COG (Chip-on-glass), backlights, we expect it is still a very small part of the company’s overall business and is likely being touted to help the company appear to be a major player in the space, given BOE’s desire to increase its participation in Apple’s (AAPL) supply chain.  Right now the company is focused on Mini-LED for large panel TVs, which are easier to produce.  If they want to compete for Apple’s Mini-LED business, they will have to focus on bringing Mini-LED panel sizes down to monitor/notebook levels, where they would compete with a number of Taiwanese and Chinese suppliers who have considerable expertise in the space.  The company is still quite vague as to where they stand in terms of Mini-LED market direction.
 

All in the Q&A was short and selective, but at least gave some indication as to where the company stands in terms of panel philosophy, particularly panel pricing.  Given the huge commitment BOE has made to LCD over the last few years we would not expect anything other than a positive panel pricing outlook, so even the mention that panel pricing might not see the rapid increases it has over the last year is telling, but the “It’s different this time philosophy is so self-serving that we discount it almost entirely.  BOE had an exceptionally strong 2Q and certainly deserves the credit for utilizing its vast capacity leverage to gain such results, but we are of the “what have you done for me lately?” school and look more to the next few quarters than those behind us.
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LG Keeps You Busy – StandBy Me

7/23/2021

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LG Keeps You Busy – StandBy Me

No, not by watching the 1986 classic Rob Reiner film, but by giving you the option to take your monitor with you wherever you go (in your house).  LG Electronics (066570.KS) has released limited quantities of what it calls a wireless private screen and stand in Korea.  While it looks like a 27” monitor, the stand allows the display to be swiveled, tilted, and rotated, so it can be used in a variety of situations, but the real feature that seems to have attracted attention is the fact that the display can operate for up to 3 hours without power.  According to LG, this means as long as you have a wireless connection available, you can take the monitor anywhere in the hose or even outside, and not have to go searching for an outlet to plug it in.
 
The device is based on WebOS 6.0, which is the same as the LG 2021 TV line which gives access to the LG Channel which provides 144 free channels (in Korea), and when you realize you have left the remote upstairs, you can use the touch screen controls.  To make it more useful, LGE has included the ability to download apps from its store, many of which are those used in smartphones, so users will have little learning curve with the touch screen, and if you turn on your smartphone’s NFC app, you can just tap the phone on the NFC logo that will appear on the screen and the phone’s display will appear on the monitor, which means you will have less chance of going blind from watching movies on a 6.5” screen.
 
LGE put a limited number (300) of the devices on pre-order status both on its website and at a single store, with all units selling out in 1 hour, with a sequential delivery schedule beginning next month, and the promise that another on-line pre-order session will be held before the official launch next month.  LGE says this new form factor is part of its program to adapt its products to a ‘new lifestyle’, although portable TVs, albeit far smaller, have been around since the 1970’s, with this shot seeming to be a step in the right direction for those that do not feel obligated to have a static TV in every room.  If you live in Korea and were one of the lucky 300, when the wife tells you to clean your junk out of the garage on the weekend, you won’t have to miss the Men’s Judo or the Women’s Canoe Slalom events while you empty those tie-die shirts you had in college.  LG “Life is Good!”
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LG StandBy Me - Version 1 - Source: LG Electronics
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LG StandBy Me - Version 2- Source: LG Electronics
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When a 99” TV is Considered Small

7/23/2021

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When a 99” TV is Considered Small
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​Micro-LED TVs are a hot topic of conversation in the CE space, as we have noted many times, and while they are touted as the ‘next’ display technology, the technology comes with a number of issues that make predicting the Micro-LED takeover of the display space a bit challenging.  Among the technology’s biggest proponents is Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), who has been pushing the technology in the B2B space by producing a modular system that can be built into almost any vertical or horizontal configuration.  As with any new technology, the early iterations of such products are quite expensive and virtually impractical in all but the most unusual situations, but Samsung has faced similar challenges before and pushed on despite the technology’s trials and tribulations.
More to prove that it can be done, Samsung adapted this modular Micro-LED technology to what it calls a residential TV product, albeit one that costs in the neighborhood of $100,000, and promised to augment the 146” 2018 version with a smaller(!) 110” version, which it has done.  That said, the company also promised to release an even smaller version, a tiny 99” model in the 1st half of the year, which seems to have passed by.  As expected, a Samsung spokesperson said that the delay was due to the ‘high demand’ for the 110” product, but sources have indicated that Samsung has been having trouble adapting the technology to the ‘smaller’ size sets.
While this seems a bit odd considering a 99” TV screen is 86” by 46” and Micro-LED chips are less than 100um each, Samsung is trying to make a transition with the new ‘smaller’ sizes, which has presented additional difficulties.  A 4K TV has almost 8.4m pixels, each with a Red, Green, and Blue subpixel, and since each one of those sub-pixels is a Micro-LED it means that almost 25m very small LEDs have to be picked up from a wafer and moved to a substrate., a very time-consuming task using even the most advanced transfer technology.  Aside from the large numbers and the fact that red LEDs cannot be produced on the same wafer as blue and green LEDs, the inevitability of ‘bad’ Micro-LEDs in such a large array means that time must be taken to remove and replace a number of defective LEDs, adding to the cost of producing such a device.  In order to reduce the transfer time, Samsung has been looking for ways to produce all three color LEDs on a single wafer, which is a way to allow the transfer of 8.3m pixels containing red, green and blue micro-LEDs, rather than 24.9m single color micro-LEDs.
While Samsung is not the only one looking to make such a technology upgrade, the company does have it own LED production lines and experience in commercial LED production, but it seems that such a process is taking longer than expected to master and has delayed the ‘smaller’ models of Samsung’s micro-LED TV line, and will probably delay the 86” and 76” models that the company promise to release before the end of this year.  We certainly don’t fault Samsung for trying, although it is far better to under promise and over-deliver than to miss aggressive timelines, but we expect that if Samsung does miss its residential Micro-LED targets this year, we will see such TVs at various shows in 1H next year, and relatively early in the year, but as to when they will become available to consumers and at a cost that is at least just under nose-bleed level is likely more of a 2023 item; we hope.
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