​Data from China has two problems.  One, it is hard to come by considering it is controlled by the state government, and two, it can be unreliable, with changes appearing months or quarters from the original release.  There are a few private data providers but most are behind paywalls or require subscriptions.  That said, there are some sources that, on occasion, give out actual information albeit a bit biased toward local organizations and companies.  Here is a taste of some of that local data, unconfirmed, but available.  Take it with a grain of salt until it can be confirmed:

• Global TV Panel Unit Shipments – 1H 2025 – 120.5m units (confirmed) up 1.8% y/y (on a cumulative basis -6 months – we see 120.5m units as down 1.7% y/y)
• Global TV Panel Area Shipped – 1H 2025 – 88.8 million m2 – up 1.9% y/y (unconfirmed)
• Global TV panel Average Size – 1H 2025 – 49.4” – roughly flat y/y
• Global TV Panel 1Q Shipments – units – up 11.5% y/y
• Global TV Panel 1Q Shipment Area – up 13.8%
• Global TV Panel 2Q Shipments – units – down 7.0% y/y
• Global TV Panel 2Q Shipment Area – down 8.8% y/y

Again, all are unconfirmed other than specified.

Given the lack of holidays or special events over the last 45 days, we have not checked Samsung Electronics (005930,KS) TV set pricing until today.  It seems that Samsung has made some structural changes to their premium TV set availability and pricing during that period, essentially eliminating all 2024 8K Mini-LED/QD sets from their on-line roster and almost all (3 hi-end sets still available) Mini-LED/QD 4K sets for which they raised prices substantially.  This is rather unusual as the previous year’s sets are typically available for at least the entire following year as an alternative for those looking to save money by purchasing last year’s models, but in this case Samsung pushes potential 2024 model purchasers to outside sources or to 2025 models.  We note also that in 2024 Samsung made available 8K and 4K  Mini-LED/QD sets along with a line of QD only sets, however this year they have eliminated the QD only line, meaning all LCD display premium TVs are Mini-LED/QD, with no alternative without the Mini-LED option.
In terms of OLED, Samsung seems to be taking the same track on last year’s models, eliminating all of the hi-end and low-end models, leaving only the mid-tier. Essentially pushing potential buyers to 2025 models.  We note that 2024 low-end models saw a large price increase in May (from $2,000 to $3,400) but we are suspect about that change as that model has now been discontinued.  Without that change the 2024 OLED low-end tier would be down 41.2% (lifetime), rather than down 18.1% and flat YTD (yellow highlight).
Over the last 49 days here is how Samsung’s on-line premium TV set pricing has evolved:

​All in, it seems that Samsung is taking an unusual turn with the premium TV set line this year, pushing buyers to 2025 models directly, rather than giving them the option of last year’s models and doing a little less anticipatory discounting in front of the Labor Day holiday.  The exception seems to be the low-end of this year’s OLED line, where prices dropped over 15% during the period and remain far below the mid and upper tier OLED sets.  There is the possibility that Samsung is able to capture any cost savings on the QD/OLED panels it uses for most of the low-end S85F models, but that is unconfirmed.  We expect some additional discounting before the holiday itself.

Trendforce, in our view, one of the more aggressive estimators we watch, has lowered their 2025 TV unit shipment forecast to 195.71m units, down 1.1% y/y.  They cite the following reasons:

• High panel costs have (and will) hinder promotional discounting
• US shipment pull-ins have (~2% to 3%) will lower 2H shipment growth
• 60% of China’s consumer subsidy capital has been used to date, limiting subsidies for the holiday season

We note that Trendforce has lowered their full year 2025 TV shipment forecast a number of times since last year.  Here are the forecasts:

• November 2024          200.72m units             up 1.7% y/y
• December 2024          199.16 m units             up 0.9% y/y
• February 2025             197.80m units             down 0.2% y/y
• August 2025                 195.70m units             down 1.1% y/y

Trendforce estimates the following for the top 5 TV set brands for the first half of the year for both unit volume and share.  The substantial share increases at TCL () and Hisense () are the result of Chinese subsidies that have been in place since (officially) September of last year.  It was originally slated to end by the end of 1Q this year but has been extended.  Who says you can’t buy market share?:

Speaking of large TV sets, in anticipation of Prime Day (7/8 to 7/11) we checked to see if other retailers, in this case Amazon (AMZN) had begun any unusual promotions.  While the site quotes discounts for many of these sets, most are at the same price they were when we checked last, about 10 days ago.  The discounts being shown on the site are the current price against the original list price, which is typically the highest price the set ever sees.  Much of the LG 70”+ inventory is relatively old, with only 2 models from 2024 and the remainder older, while much but not all of the Samsung inventory is 2025.  We note that while price and price/in2 are important metrics we use to value products, we note that the feature sets for each of these models are different and should be evaluated in conjunction with other metrics.

We have been tracking Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) Premium TV set pricing since they began marketing Mini-LED/QD sets in 2023 and their OLED lines since 2022.  The purpose is to compare the short and long-term pricing trends for particular TV set lines and for a more general view of Samsung’s premium TV set pricing on a year/year basis.  This gives us a monthly, quarterly and yearly trend that can help to understand how the company, which is the largest TV set producer globally, views the TV set market at any given time.
On a short-term basis, Samsung has been consistently following pricing pattern trends with both this year’s (2025) line and last year’s, as shown in Figure 1, with both year’s pricing moving in close synchronization.  That said, when we compare the rate of change in TV set pricing for the first 90 days that each line was available to consumers, one can see that this year has been quite different than previous years.   Each year since the Mini-LED/QD and OLED lines have been available, the price of each set category has declined during the first 90 days of avaialability, except this year, where prices have increased for all Mini-LED/QD categories and remained relatively flat for OLED types.  There have been ups and downs, typically holiday based, but the 90 day trend this year is certainly different than in previous years and would indicate a focus for Samsung more toward profitability than unit volume growth, at least in the Mini-LED/QD set lines.
The competition in the Mini-LED LCD TV space has continued to intensify, with Chinese brands, particularly Hisense (600060.CH) and TCL (000100.CH) expanding their lines with larger size models and more aggressive pricing, and with additional help from the Chinese government’s “New for Old” subsidy program, Samsung and other non-Chinese brands face considerable price competition, which tends to push Samsung’s general TV set positioning more toward higher-end premium sets, where there is a bit more margin flexibility.
In the US, Samsung has a considerably better position, with Chinese sets facing higher tariffs limiting competition from Chinese brands, which we expect has given Samsung the chance to keep premium TV set prices higher than normal during the early part of the year.  But as the year progresses, Samsung will have to begin the process of bringing down set prices to stimulate sales volumes.  If Samsung is to meet its goal of becoming the world’s largest OLED TV vendor, it will be necessary to bring OLED pricing more in line with seasonal norms, and while we are unsure if Samsung has similar goals with its Mini-LED/QD lines, we expect the same pricing issues will exist for those lines.

In the most recent 30-day period, Samsung’s premium TV set pricing has moved as follows:

AI is visible.  If it is not on the box of a CE product, it will most likely be mentioned in the promotional literature, the Set-up guide, or ‘Controls & Instructions”, and will certainly be mentioned (many times) in the advertisements promoting that particular CE device.  In fact it would likely be more difficult to find premium CE products that don’t mention AI, but aside from the chatbots and LLMs that are typically the face of AI, much of what we are told is AI is not seen but can still affect many of the device functions we use on a daily basis.  Smartphones are obvious AI candidates and the competition for ‘AIness’ is already underway, as it is in laptops, desktop computers, and even in tablets, but what about TV sets?  One doesn’t typically query your TV about “What’s happening at the Diddy trial?” and rarely does searches on your TV, other than when looking for a show or movie, but AI does play a part in the TV set space, even though you don’t see it at work.
It goes deeper.  Some TV set AI functions, while not controlled by the viewer, can be seem by the viewer.  Video processors in premium TVs are no longer just perform the same mathematical functions on each frame.  Now they adapt how they process images based on a neural model that was rained for that specific purpose while other Ai functions are totally invisible to the user, although they are able to influence users in other ways.  Non-AI image processors are traditionally rule-based (Think of a recipe for Lasagna).  They use fixed algorithms based on well-established formulas and are applied uniformly across images or sections of images.  They typically work toward improving picture sharpness, enhancing edge definition, and reducing noise by working on small squares (3x3, 5x5, etc.) of pixels.  AI image processors are constantly adapting to actual conditions (Think of a chef who constantly modifies a recipe to improve it).
As much of the content we watch is not high resolution, TV set processors spend considerable processing power trying to upscale video for current 4K displays, essentially trying to make a low resolution image look better on a high resolution display.  Typically this is done through one of three processes.
Bilinear interpolation – This function averages the 4 nearest pixel values to create a new pixel value to fill in extra pixels.  The result is a soft, blurrier image.
Bicubic interpolation – This function uses a larger block of pixels (16) and a more complex polynomial function to create new pixels.  The result is a sharper image but can create artifacts.
Nearest Neighbor – This function just copies the values of the nearest pixel.  It produces a blocky image but is the fastest of all.
There are also global functions, such as those that adjust the overall contrast of a scene based on the darkest and lightest parts, but older video processors lack the ability to understand the details, and processes like general noise reduction can also reduce detail.  Users typically have to adjust settings for different types of content (movies, sports, news, etc.) as the functions of typical TV set video processors are generic and unable to easily adapt to differing content or environmental conditions.
AI image processors are different, and while each brand has their own AI processor with its own characteristics, here is what sets them apart from the generic processors that are and have been used in TV sets.
Convolutional Neural Networks – These processors use deep learning networks, with CNNs trained on very large datasets of images and video that allows them to learn complex relationships.  Some of the training material consists of image or video pairs, with one being low resolution and the other high resolution.  When comparing the pair on a pixel by pixel, square by square and segment by segment basis, the CNN is able to develop the same, “This is the most likely next pixel” process that a trained LLM would use to figure the next token in a sentence.  By using this technique, it generates the ‘most likely’ pixel to fill in blanks when upscaling.  While these pixel choices are being made, the AI is also evaluating the scene on a frame by frame basis to better understand the image flow.  This can help the Ai to identify the content type (movie, sports, news, etc.) and make adjustments to match.  It can even go as far as recognizing objects in a frame in order to independently adjust their characteristics on the fly.
Depending on the AI, and its capabilities, the AI processor can also perform highly accurate color tone mapping, keeping object details accurate in both light and dark situations, essentially creating an HDR-like image from SDR content.  The AI can also be used for noise and artifact reduction, having been trained to recognize the difference between various types of noise (film grain as opposed to digital noise) and can even clean up motion blur that occurs with fast moving objects in lower resolution sports content.
Similarly AI processing can also be applied to TV sound where acoustic tuning, adaptive surround sound, and dialogue enhancement are all able to be accomplished using highly trained ML systems, and voice controlled remotes will improve greatly as AI LLMs better understand the context of commands.  But what about those mystery AI functions, the ones that work completely away from the user?  We know that many TVs track user viewing habits and that data is ripe for Ai’s to use for content recommendations.  Rather than the endless searching for attractive content that users wind up doing, Ai systems are easily tasked with real-time searches that are adapted to the user’s habits or past requests, but here’s one function that we can safely say would be a pleasure when implemented…live translation.  Instantaneous on-screen sub-title translations, and eventually (not that far off) direct translation to match the image without sub-titles, essentially lip-syncing the translation to the image.
There are a host of other TV set features, many of which are embedded in process applications that AI can improve, and we haven’t even touched on gaming, where there are many features that AI can improve by ‘learning’ from its users, but we would also be remiss if we did not mention the fact that along with the improvements in TV sets that AI is bringing comes a decrease in privacy and security.  ACR (Automatic Content Recognition) systems are always running when the set is on and identify all content, regardless of source, being displayed on the screen by capturing screenshots of content roughly two times each second.  Those screenshots are cross-referenced against a huge database of media content and advertising, providing a rich history of the viewer’s habits that is used  to enhance content recommendations but can also be sold to marketers, especially given how difficult TV set brands make it to disable the feature.  Passing this user information to an AI system, adapted to spot patterns and nuance, such systems would open the user to serious privacy concerns.
But when it comes down to the pluses and minuses, AI has the ability to improve TV set performance significantly and given the still early stage of AI and ML systems, brands have barely scratched the surface.  Brands are still experimenting with AI and applied AI processes to some of the more obvious functions we have mentioned.  As these processors improve, we expect there to be a shift from the more typical ‘Bigger is better” and “Higher resolution” competition to “…can your TV do this?”.  Differentiation is the name of the game in the CE space and feature cycles can dry up in an instant, so AI features, some of which the user may have to take the brand’s word for, open up a whole treasure trove of marketable features.  What brand would not look forward to that?

Sources:
https://www.samsung.com/us/televisions-home-theater/tvs/ai-tvs/
https://www.advanced-television.com/2025/03/26/the-future-of-television-how-technology-is-shaping-the-industry/
https://www.trendhunter.com/trends/copilot-ai-for-tvs
https://www.reliant.co.uk/blog/how-does-ai-improve-the-sound-of-a-tv/
https://www.lge360.com/iraq_en/lg-story/helpful-guide/ai-tv-vs-traditional-tv
https://insights.samsung.com/2025/06/03/how-does-ai-upscaling-work-on-direct-view-led-displays-2/
https://www.lg.com/us/experience/ai-tv-for-sound-and-vision
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China’s May Day holiday, aka Labor Day, celebrates the contributions and dedication of China’s workers, although in recent years it has also become another one of China’s ‘Shopping holidays”.  The official holiday is a weeklong (including weekends) but has become two weeks if you include the extra week of pre-holiday sales.  We have access to data on May Day holiday TV sales in China, along with the same for National Day, a slightly longer (unofficial) that comes in mid-September.  By putting the sales data together for 2024 and 2025 we can see the trend in TV size sold during the three periods between May Day 2024, National Day 2024 and May Day 2025.
Of course, the Chinese trade press has been extoling the ‘massive’ growth in large TV sets, essentially those between 85” and 100”, so we were curious as to the validity of those claims, but we also note that China’s “New for Old” rebate program, which offers rebates on all TV sets that meet certain energy guidelines with a maximum of $272 (US) per set, remains in effect, which skews sales to larger sizes.  On a gross basis, the in-store size average of TV sets sold in China during this year’s May Day was 71.4”, up 2.0” from last year, while that average in online stores was 62.7”, up 2.5” y/y.  While 98” and 100” sets increased by large percentages y/y the actual volumes for these large sets are still small (23,537 combined for May Day 2025), while 85” set volume was almost 5 times the number of 98” and 100” sets sold, making the increase in set size more of an 85” story than a 98”/100” one.
The Chinese trade press also championed the same ultra-large story with the fact that sales value increased9.3% y/y during the holiday, which many attribute to the larger number of 98” and 100” sets, but it is almost impossible to disaggregate the increase in sales value across all TV set sizes as smaller 65” – 85” sets could have seen price increases between2024 and 2025.  We don’t doubt that ultra-large TV set unit volumes have been increasing in China, but there is also the concept that if Chinese buyers are able to afford such large TV sets, the Chinese consumer is ‘richer’ and more successful, something that the Chinese government has been promoting over the last few years.  It is difficult to separate the fact from fiction.
 

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​We don’t usually check TV Set pricing bi-weekly, but with the Memorial Day holiday next week, we thought Samsung (005930.KS) might be adjusting prices to move some of the TV set inventory that had been building up before the Trump bilateral tariff announcement and its subsequent postponement.  While we still check pricing on Samsung’s older premium TV models our focus is on 2024 and 2025 models, given that 2023 models are only sporadically available .
2024 models have been in circulation in the US for 441 days, about a year and a quarter, while the 2025 models have been available for less than 2 months.  OLED models are similar with 2024 models available in the US for 404 days and the OLED models for only 40 days.  That said, Samsung’s 2024 Mini-LED/QD TV set line saw the largest declines, with prices of some models declining more than 30% over the last two weeks, however we note that many of those sets seeing steep declines over the last two weeks are not even at their lowest point for this year, having seen a large price increase between the middle of April and early May.  We make the assumption, although unconfirmed, that Samsung had assumed that some tariffs might be assigned to these sets and raised prices to compensate (in advance), but then found that there would be no additional tariffs and lowered prices back to a more normal level.  Either that ot Samsung’s inventory levels for these models was excessive and now needs a bit of stimulus to move volume.
Whatever the reason, the chart below shows how aggressive, both to the upside and to the downside, Samsung has been with it’s 4K Mini-LED/QD line pricing during this year.  The two peaks and dips represent changes of ~30% from top to bottom.  We note also that the last two weeks are the first time Samsung has begun to lower prices on 2025 models.  We expect that after the holidays those models that have seen discounts recently will find their way back up to those initial price points until either the tariff rules change again, or inventories are high enough that Saamsung feels compelled to move levels lower a bit.
Wee don’t envy those that must set TV set pricing given the tariff volatility and the current fear of a self-generated recession, especially given the inventory pull-ins that have been a part of the CE space this year.  While we expect there will be more sabre rattling from the WH, we expect the show of power that was exhibited has now transitioned to actually trying to get some sort of agreements signed that will show that Trump’s tariffs were a success.  As we have noted previously, the agreements are tenuous at best and are mostly for show because when it gets down to consumers, they don’t care if China says they will buy 10% more soybeans, unless it means that the price of soybeans will be less at the supermarket.  CE products are no different.

As Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) 2025 premium TV line has only been available for ~40 days, we did not expect that prices would have changed from their initial levels, however we expected to see some price pressure on older (2024) models as production wanes for last year’s models and shifts to the 2025 line.  The big question was whether the typical price reductions for the previous year’s Tv set line would be offset by tariff costs.  We cannot answer the question fully yet, but in Samsung’s 2024 4K Mini-LED/QD line, where we would typically expect some price erosion, prices rose by 28.6% over the ~30 day period, as shown in Figure 1, bringing them back to levels seen at the beginning of this year.  Similarly, the entire 2024 4K premium TV set line (includes both Mini-LED/QD and QD only) saw a 20.1% price increase.  The 2024 8K line did not see much of a price change (+1.8%), while the 2024 QD only sets saw a 7% price increase, even as the offerings for about 1/3 of thoses line are no longer available.
Samsung’s 2025 OLED TV set line, which has been available for ~ one month followed a more typical early pattern and saw no price change during the period, however the 2024 OLED line did.  While the high and mid 2024 OLED price tier models saw a modest 2.9% decrease in price, as one might expect, the low-end models saw the opposite, rising 27.9% in less than 30 days.  Typical monthly price moves for most OLED models are +/-1.2% and while there have been bigger monthly moves than the average, this month’s increase was the largest ever for this segment of the line.
There are always a number of factors at work when it comes to pricing, particularly inventory levels, component pricing, FOREX, and consumer demand, but now we have the added factor of tariffs, which seem to change on a moment’s notice.  We cannot pin down the price movements we have seen here to a particular factor, but we expect there will be considerably more volatility in TV set pricing as existing on-shore inventory gets worked down.  As Samsung’s sets are assembled primarily in Mexico, for the time being they are exempt from more recent tariffs, as long as regional (Chinese components) sourcing does not exceed 40%.
This gives Samsung the ability to (if so desired) maintain low pricing while sets from Hisense (600060.CH), and TCL (000100.CH) rise, capturing incremental volume, however it seems that Samsung is moving prices up, despite the exemptions.  While this will be beneficial in the short-term if it is sustained, it will do little for shipment volumes and customer satisfaction.  With Chinese TV set brands competing aggressively for share in all markets, Samsung gains the price advantage for a while.  Whether they choose to use it to regain share is still an open question.

We have noted recently that Sony (SNE) has shown a prototype of a new Mini-LED backlight system that uses colored LEDs instead of the usual white (or blue) LEDs.  The system, which is expected to be commercialized sometime this year, should be able to deliver color purity that would rival OLED (See “Resurrection” (03/24/25) for more details).  However, Chinese TV set brand Hisense (600060.CH) also announced a similar RGB Mini-LED 116” set that would directly compete with Sony and others who are developing the same technology including Samsung (005930.KS), LG Electronics (066570.KS), and TCL (000100.CH).
While RGB backlight technology has the potential to enhance the quality of LCD based TV sets, once again extending the life of LCD as a display technology, there are two questions that must be answered when evaluating whether RGB backlight technology will be a gamechanger, or whether it will be just a marketing gimmick to bring shoppers over to the premium TV set section on the retail floor. 
The first is whether enough TV set buyers will be able to discern enough of a difference between Tv sets using RGB backlights and those using more standard white or blue backlights.  Unfortunately much of the feedback on RGB backlight systems comes from those at shows where such displays are being shown, and most of those viewers are there because they either work in the CE industry or report on it.  This leads to a more biased view of new display technologies and one that is a bit removed from that of the average consumer, so the true test will come when such sets are on the floor at Best Buy (BBY) or WalMart (WMT).
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The second issue is price.  Most new display technologies, when initially released, carry a large price tag, as in many cases the sets are produced almost by hand until brands are able to develop cost-effective mass production processes.  A good example would be Samsung’s Micro-LED TVs (vastly different from Mini-LED TVs), which when released last June started at $110,000 for an 89” set and climbed to a jaw dropping $150,000 for the 114” set, putting them at the very top of the premium Tv market.  This does not lead to large sales volume but can be used as a banner for the entire premium Tv line.

However, things are different now.  The battle for supremacy in the display and TV markets is no longer a gentlemen’s game, where a civil meeting between rivals might have been held to discuss ways to avoid conflicts.  Now Chinese brands are willing to take that same discussion out to the back alley if they think they can gain share over incumbents, with those battles being waged primarily with product pricing.  It has become ever more difficult for brands that are known for their premium pricing, Sony in particular, to offer a new technology or improvement at such lofty prices, as Chinese CE companies are not only able to quickly match the technology, but are willing to offer it at a far more reasonable price.
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One might expect Sony, if and when they commercialize their RGB Mini-LED TV, to offer it at a steep premium to other models, especially if it is offered in an extra-large size format. While that is certainly a strong possibility, Chinese brand Hisense has recently announced that it will be releasing its own RGB Mini-LED TV set this month.  What makes that unusual is that Hisense was the first to market with the technology AND at a low-enough initial price that both limits the premium that others might charge and also incorporates it into the largest Mini-LED TV available to retail customers.
We took a quick look at the XXL TV set segment (only sets 100” or larger) to see how the Hisense RGB set pricing compared to other generic XXL Mini-LED sets and here is what we found:

​The Hisense RGB Mini-LED TV is priced (in China) at ~$13,780 US, and we note that it is a 116” model, one inch larger than others on the diagonal (1.64% larger in area), but instead of being offered at a massive premium, like the Samsung Micro-LED 114” model, its price is more comparable to 100” generic Mini-LED backlight models, along with its value on a price- to-area basis.  This will make it more difficult for Sony, Samsung, and others  to introduce their versions at the lofty premiums they might normally use, especially if their sets are smaller than the Hisense model, essentially lowering the price bar before the market has even developed.
Of course, we take into consideration that RGB backlight technology will have a higher cost both in the fact that each backlight ‘pixel’ is comprised of three (RGB) LEDs instead of one, and the driving circuitry for each pixel is now far more complex and costly to produce.  That said, either Hisense has found ways to keep costs low, even during early production, or they are willing to forgo product profitability in order to maintain a share lead over rivals (TCL in China) and in South Korea and Japan.  Sony, Samsung, and LG will now have to find another feature to add to their initial RGB backlight Mini-LED sets when they are released, in order to garner a price premium over Hisense, likely something they were not planning for until recently.